What's the upcoming date for the next Consumer Price Index Report?
The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release on Thursday, September 11, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), is generating significant interest as the market eagerly awaits the Federal Reserve's next move.
The CPI report, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides a snapshot of the prices for goods and services in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. The weight for an item in the CPI is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
The report is broken down into many subcategories, but the two main ones you'll hear most about on CPI day are headline CPI and core CPI. Headline CPI includes all prices, while core CPI excludes food and energy prices, which are considered more volatile.
The CPI report has become one of the stars of the economic calendar due to the market's desire for the Fed to normalize borrowing costs. Lower rates today could lead to higher returns tomorrow, but there's also the fear that elevated rates could cause the economy to fall into a recession.
Inflation peaked in 2022, but the implementation of price-raising tariffs and a resilient labor market have made the central bank reluctant to reduce the federal funds rate. Following the July jobs report, the odds of a September rate cut shot up and are now at 87%, according to CME FedWatch.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, not the CPI. However, James Bullard, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explains that the PCE has advantages over CPI for formulating monetary policy due to factors like changing expenditure weights, comprehensive coverage, and revisable historical data.
RBC BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding notes that the risks for the CPI report sit to the high side and that if the consensus number is confirmed, it may add to calls that the Fed has room to cut rates. Dowding also notes that if temporary inflation impacts due to one-off changes in prices linked to the imposition of tariffs are a concern, the confirmed consensus number for the CPI report may alleviate those worries.
The CPI and PCE correlate closely but measure inflation differently. Despite this, the upcoming CPI report will undoubtedly factor into the central bank's thinking as they navigate the complexities of inflation and monetary policy.
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