Water scarcity, dam negotiations, and international relations: Afghanistan's water predicament spills over to neighboring countries.
In the heart of Central and South Asia, water disputes are intensifying, driven by Afghanistan's recent large-scale water infrastructure projects and the worsening effects of drought and climate change.
Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Canal and the Amu Darya River
The Taliban authorities in Afghanistan have launched the Qosh Tepa canal, a project aimed at irrigating 560,000 hectares in northern Afghanistan by diverting an estimated 21% of the Amu Darya River's flow. This river is crucial for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, who fear the canal could reduce water availability and worsen the Aral Sea crisis, threatening regional water-sharing arrangements dating from Soviet times. Taliban officials have denied that the Qosh Tepa project will have a major impact on the Amu Darya's water levels.
The Harirud River and Iran
Relations between Afghanistan and Iran remain tense over the shared Harirud river. Although Iran has a formal water-sharing treaty with Afghanistan over the Helmand river, the accord was never fully implemented. Iran accuses the Taliban of withholding water deliberately, especially since the recent inauguration of the Pashdan Dam, which affects the Harirud river basin flowing into Iran. This has prompted warnings of water shortages near Iranian cities like Mashhad and fears of escalating conflict, recalling earlier deadly skirmishes linked to water scarcity.
Pakistan and the Kabul River Basin
Although specific new disputes are less highlighted in recent reports, Afghanistan's moves to control river flows—particularly those feeding into Pakistan—raise concerns about reduced water availability downstream. Afghanistan's Kabul river basin, which encompasses tributaries to the greater Indus basin and feeds the capital and largest city, is shared with Pakistan. However, the countries have no formal cooperation mechanism regarding the Kabul river basin.
Regional Water Scarcity and Climate Change
The region is facing water scarcity due to climate change, with temperatures rising and precipitation patterns shifting. Afghanistan, heavily dependent on climate-vulnerable agriculture, is emerging as a new player in negotiations on the use of the Amu Darya, a key river in Central Asia. The Taliban authorities are pushing for Afghanistan's water sovereignty and have initiated infrastructure projects, such as the Pashdan dam on the Harirud.
However, these projects have sparked tensions with neighboring states. Iran has repeatedly demanded that Afghanistan respect its rights regarding the Helmand river, claiming upstream dams restrict the river's flow into a border lake. Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan have expressed concern over the Qosh Tepa project, fearing it will further deplete the Aral Sea.
Afghanistan's long-term poor water management has meant the country has not gotten its full share of water resources. With the end of conflict in Afghanistan, infrastructure works don't incur vast security costs, potentially facilitating the development of projects such as the Pashdan dam on the Harirud.
As the climate emergency worsens, regional water scarcity becomes more acute, making agreements more fragile and infrastructure projects more contentious. The Taliban authorities in Afghanistan are seeking to revitalize old projects and start new ones to tackle the water crisis in the Afghan capital, potentially risking fresh tensions with Pakistan and other neighbouring states.
- The Qosh Tepa canal and the Pashdan dam, two water infrastructure projects initiated by the Taliban in Afghanistan, are contributing to a shift in the regional environmental-science landscape, with potential implications for the climate-change-induced water scarcity faced by Central and South Asian countries.
- In the realm of finance and industry, the Taliban authorities' focus on developing water infrastructure projects could attract foreign investment, but these projects may invite tensions with neighboring countries, such as Iran and Uzbekistan, over water-sharing rights and environmental concerns.
- As the effects of climate change intensify and water scarcity becomes more critical, cultural and food security issues in the Central and South Asian region are being challenged, forcing these countries to reconsider traditional water-sharing agreements and to prioritize the sustainable use of water resources in the interest of environmental-science preservation and economic development.
