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United States-China trade negotiations could see a tough stance from China, predict experts

Beijing's powerful trading cards, offering entry to a massive market and resilience against economic stress, will empower China to take a tough stance in forthcoming trade negotiations with the U.S.

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3 min read
In the forthcoming trade negotiations with the U.S., China's robust market access and resilience to...
In the forthcoming trade negotiations with the U.S., China's robust market access and resilience to economic stress position it to engage in fierce bargaining, utilizing these advantages.

United States-China trade negotiations could see a tough stance from China, predict experts

In the past few years, trade between the world's economic giants, the USA and China, has teetered on the brink of a standstill, ever since President Donald Trump slapped China with a series of tariffs. The tariffs were initially a response to China's alleged role in the devastating fentanyl crisis, although Trump justified additional measures as necessary to correct the imbalance in their trade relationship and prevent the USA from being exploited.

As a result, tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods reached shocking highs of 145%— with some cumulative duties on certain goods skyrocketing to an astonishing 245%. China responded with 125% tariffs on US imports and more targeted measures aimed at American businesses.

After weeks of escalation that sent global markets tumbling, the two superpowers will gather for a summit to hopefully break the deadlock. Washington has made it clear they aren't banking on a "grand trade deal" to tackle Trump's longstanding gripe about the significant trade imbalance with the export titan— instead, they're hoping for some de-escalation in tensions. China has remained steadfast, asserting that their demand for all US tariffs to be lifted remains unchanged.

Despite China's struggling economy, analysts agree that it is in no hurry to seal a deal. Why? Because China possesses critical assets going into the talks: a vast domestic market, key technologies, and control over a substantial proportion of processed rare earth minerals.

Analysts like Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore describe China's position as "much more mature" compared to its approach during Trump's first term. "There's no wild bluster," he notes. Instead, China has opted for a calculated response, knowing it can't be manipulated by the USA.

Should the talks fail, China has additional strategies to protect itself. It has been positioning itself as a dependable trade partner in Southeast Asia and Europe, gobbling up more stable market shares. This way, China has built a buffer against the unpredictability of the US market and the consequences of the trade war.

Despite appearing strong, China isn't invulnerable. Last year, sales of Chinese goods to the USA totaled over $500 billion—16.4% of its total exports, according to Beijing's customs data. While US exports to China were significantly smaller at $143.5 billion, even a fraction of that loss represents a substantial financial blow.

As the effects of the trade war set in, China's factory activity contracted in April, with Beijing attributing the shift to global economic issues. Economists predict that these negotiations could bring extended periods of volatility, with an agreement on future talks being the most probable outcome.

© 2025 AFP.

Enrichment Data to consider:

  • Economic Impact: The trade war has had measurable effects on both the US and Chinese economies. US exports to China have decreased, and China's economy has slowed significantly.
  • Tariff Exemptions: There have been temporary exemptions for certain sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics from tariffs.
  • Global Trade Reallocation: Trade reallocation patterns have emerged as a result of the trade war, with other countries potentially filling the void left by reduced US-China trade.
  • Future of Global Value Chains: The trade war could result in a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek new trading partners to minimize the impact of tariffs.
  • Political Dynamics: Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs policy and China's hardline stance have greatly influenced the negotiations between the two countries.
  • US-China Strategic Competition: US-China trade tensions are part of a broader strategic competition between the two nations, and the outcome of the trade war has implications beyond just economic factors.
  • International Collusion: Some other countries have collaborated to counteract the impact of US tariffs on China, further complicating the trade war dynamic.
  1. The United States has agreed to tighten its finance policies towards China, signaling a potential prolongation of the trade war that started in 2018.
  2. Analysts predict that the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China might tighten the business environment, as both countries consider revising their strategies.
  3. The further escalation of tariffs, initially imposed due to China's role in the fentanyl crisis, has been causing turbulence in the global economy, affecting general-news headlines.
  4. In light of its vast resources and key technologies, China remains confident in its ability to maintain its position even if the trade talks with the United States fail.
  5. Despite China's efforts to strengthen ties with other regions to cushion the potential impact of the US-China trade conflict, economists warn that the ongoing dispute could still lead to extended periods of volatility, particularly in the business sector, throughout 2025.

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