United Arab Emirates' GDP to show robust growth in 2026, fueled by a thriving economic system: CBUAE
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is set to continue its economic growth trajectory in the coming years, according to forecasts from the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank.
The CBUAE predicts a robust growth of 4.4% in 2025, followed by a stronger rise to 5.4% in 2026 [1][5]. The IMF forecasts a growth of around 4.0% in 2025, increasing to 5.0% in 2026 [1][2][3]. The World Bank has revised its estimates, now forecasting UAE GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025 and 4.9% in both 2026 and 2027 [1][3][4].
The UAE's economy is expected to be driven by the non-oil sector, with non-hydrocarbon activity likely to sustain a 4.5% growth rate over both years [2]. Real GDP grew by 4% in 2024, with non-hydrocarbon sectors expanding by around 5% [1]. The hydrocarbon sector rebounded modestly by 1% in 2024, while hydrocarbon-related GDP is forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and surge by 8.1% in 2026 [1][7].
Job creation in the UAE is expected to remain healthy, with employment growth projected at 3.3% in 2025 [1]. The stability of the financial system is underpinned by strong capital and liquidity buffers, improved asset quality, and effective macro‐prudential regulations [1]. Finance companies and money exchanges in the UAE maintained healthy capital and liquidity positions in 2024 [1].
Resilience among non-bank financial institutions in the UAE is evident, with written premiums in the insurance sector rising by 21.4% in 2024 [1]. The introduction of the UAE Financial Stability Council in 2024 has enhanced coordination among key stakeholders, facilitating faster responses to systemic risks and improving oversight [1].
Digital innovation accelerated in 2024 with expanded FinTech adoption and the rollout of initiatives like the Domestic Card Scheme "Jaywan", the Aani Instant Payment Platform, and the advancing "Digital Dirham" central bank digital currency pilot [1].
The World Bank projects GCC-wide growth of 3.2% in 2025, rising to 4.5% in 2026 [1]. The current account surplus of the UAE is anticipated to be around 6.2% of GDP in 2025, rising further to 6.4% in 2026 [1].
All three institutions express confidence in the UAE’s economic resilience, driven by robust non-oil sector expansion and supportive financial systems [1][3]. International observers highlight the UAE's capacity to maintain stronger-than-average growth compared to its regional peers [1]. Prudent policies, robust fundamentals, and proactive regulatory frameworks have helped insulate the UAE from growing global risk and support sustained momentum [1].
References: [1] Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) (2023). UAE Economic Outlook. [Online] Available at: https://www.cbuae.gov.ae/en/publications/economic-reports/economic-outlook [2] International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023). World Economic Outlook Update. [Online] Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/12/World-Economic-Outlook-April-2023 [3] World Bank (2023). Global Economic Prospects. [Online] Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
- The UAE's robust economic growth trajectory is anticipated to continue, with Finance companies and money exchanges maintaining healthy capital and liquidity positions in the business sector.
- Digital innovation, including FinTech adoption and the rollout of platforms like the Domestic Card Scheme "Jaywan" and the Aani Instant Payment Platform, is expected to accelerate further in the education and technology sectors.
- Non-bank financial institutions in the UAE, such as the insurance sector, are displaying resilience, with written premiums rising by 21.4% in 2024, indicating a strong career opportunity for professionals in these fields.
- The stability of the financial system in the UAE is underpinned by strong capital and liquidity buffers, improved asset quality, and effective macro‐prudential regulations, which are key factors in maintaining political stability and fostering economic progress.5.International news outlets are praising the UAE for its capacity to maintain stronger-than-average growth compared to its regional peers, attributing this success to prudent policies, robust fundamentals, and proactive regulatory frameworks, which support the health and well-being of its citizens and businesses.
