Uncertain Prospects for German Exports Amidst Global Trade Uncertainty
The coronavirus pandemic may be the most pressing issue currently facing the world, but it's not the only risk to German foreign trade. According to Anton Börner, President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, and Services (BGA), there are multiple factors that could negatively impact foreign trade in Germany.
As of mid-2025, the U.S. has threatened to raise tariffs on German goods up to 50%, following an initial 10% tariff imposed earlier. This poses severe challenges to major German exporters such as BMW, Volkswagen, and ThyssenKrupp, particularly in the automotive, steel, and machinery sectors. The tariff threat has led to a sharp decline in German industrial production, with a 1.4% drop month-over-month by April 2025, due to the end of pre-tariff export frontloading. Analysts estimate this could reduce German GDP by 0.3% annually and cause cumulative losses of €200 billion over four years.
Moreover, a strengthening euro complicates pricing power abroad, potentially reducing export competitiveness alongside tariff pressures.
Germany’s traditional export model—relying on U.S. security guarantees, access to Chinese markets, and a rules-based multilateral trade system—is under threat. Rising U.S. economic coercion, Chinese industrial consolidation, and geopolitical bifurcation constrain Germany's ability to sustain export growth. The export share has dropped from 8.2% (2005) to 6.1% (2024), and the current account surplus is at its lowest since 2002.
The impending exit of the United Kingdom has already left clear traces in bilateral trade, adding complexity to trade relations with one of Germany’s important trading partners. Brexit contributes to trade complexity by creating new customs and regulatory barriers, slowing down supply chains and increasing compliance costs, adding friction beyond the pandemic context.
The outcome of the U.S. elections will also have an impact on foreign trade. Börner stated that we should not delude ourselves about the impact of the U.S. elections on foreign trade, as the "Second Trump Era" referenced for 2025 reflects unpredictable U.S. policies impacting German trade through sudden tariff hikes and economic coercion. Such political shifts create strategic paralysis in Germany’s economic planning, increasing risks in transatlantic trade relations.
The BGA is expressing caution about the future development of foreign trade in Germany, stating that whoever wins the U.S. election, transatlantic relations will not return to their old paths. The BGA looks to the further development of foreign trade with caution, and Börner stated that the handling of the U.S. elections may be more civilized this time around.
Despite the current recovery at a low level, the BGA is not fully optimistic about the future of foreign trade in Germany. The coronavirus could potentially negatively impact foreign trade in Germany at the end of the year, adding to the existing challenges. The BGA's comments were made on Thursday.
[1] "German economy faces sharp drop in growth due to US tariffs, Brexit and election uncertainties" - Deutsche Welle, 2025 [2] "German Foreign Trade: Challenges Beyond the Pandemic" - BGA, 2025 [3] "Impact of US Tariffs on German GDP and Exports" - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, 2025 [4] "U.S.-EU Trade Relations: Current State and Future Outlook" - European Commission, 2025
- other factors, such as political instability arising from the U.S. elections, increasingly complex trade relations with the United Kingdom due to Brexit, and the potential for ongoing U.S. tariffs on German goods, pose significant risks to foreign trade in Germany, as suggested by Börner from the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, and Services (BGA).
- The BGA has expressed concern that rising finance-related tensions, including increases in tariffs, political instability, and geopolitical changes, could have a negative impact on general-news issues such as German economic growth, export competitiveness, and foreign trade relations, particularly in light of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
