Turkey's export prospects remain solid amidst global turmoil
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In the latest report, the Manufacturing Export Climate Index for Turkey has shown a steady improvement, increasing from 51.0 in June to 51.3 in July. This marks the 19th consecutive month of improvement for Turkish manufacturers, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The index reading, reported by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), indicates an improvement in the export climate, as readings above 50 suggest an expansion in the sector.
The overall improvement in economic activity in countries that constitute the main sources of external demand for Turkish exporters is a positive signal, particularly in a global trade environment marked by heightened uncertainties.
Among all monitored economies, India posted the fastest growth, accelerating to a 15-month high. Strong expansion was also recorded in Spain, while Germany, the U.K., Italy, and the Netherlands saw moderate increases in output. The United States accelerated in July, expanding at its fastest pace in 2025.
However, Russia, Poland, France, and Romania saw contractions in manufacturing output, accounting for approximately 7% of Turkey’s manufacturing exports. Notable declines were also recorded in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Kenya. The steepest contraction occurred in Taiwan.
Despite these contractions, Turkey’s demand for its manufactured goods has generally improved in recent months. The top 10 export markets for Turkish manufacturers in 2025, based on demand and export values reported, would be:
- Morocco
- Egypt
- Libya
- Iraq
- United States
- Tunisia
- Saudi Arabia
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- Spain
Turkey’s exports to the US, the second-largest market for manufactured goods, have remained significant, with $1.2 billion exported by June 2025, despite tariff increases to 15-25%. However, concerns about demand sensitivity and a narrow export portfolio remain.
Middle Eastern countries remain crucial export partners, with Iraq being the top export destination for Turkish chicken meat. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait also show improving economic activity supporting demand.
Africa is a rapidly growing market for Turkish exports. In the first half of 2025, exports to Africa neared $10 billion. The leading African recipients were Morocco, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, South Africa, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Ghana.
The overall export climate for Turkish manufacturers has improved consistently for 19 months through mid-2025, reflecting sustained demand despite global uncertainties. However, exports face challenges such as increased US tariffs, trade restrictions in some sectors, and regional instabilities impacting volume.
In summary, Turkish exports show robust growth and diversification of markets in 2025, with particular emphasis on Africa and the Middle East as rising demand hubs, complemented by stable demand in traditional top markets like the US and Europe.
- The steady improvement of the Manufacturing Export Climate Index for Turkey suggests an expansion in the sector, not just within Europe, but also in regions like the Middle East, as indicated by the increasing demand for Turkish chicken meat in Iraq.
- As Turkey's manufacturing exports neared $10 billion in the first half of 2025, African countries, such as Morocco, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, emerged as significant markets, while Turkey's connection with the Middle East remained crucial, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait showing improving economic activity.
- The finance sector should take note of Turkey's burgeoning exports to Africa and the Middle East, particularly as these regions exhibit rising demands for Turkish manufacturers' goods, potentially opening up new investment opportunities and contributing positively to the environmental sustainability efforts in these regions through the industry's processes.
