Traders in the hog industry aim to conclude the current business week
In the world of commodities, Lean Hog futures have been demonstrating a somewhat mixed but cautiously optimistic trend.
On December 25, 2025, Lean Hogs closed at a higher price of $81.725. This upward movement was followed by a small gain in the CME Lean Hog Index, which closed at $110.51 on July 29, 2025. The current trend for Lean Hog futures shows a generally positive movement, with nearby contracts, such as August 2025, posting gains around $108.20. October and December contracts also followed suit, with October near $90.70 and December around $83.35.
However, the market has not been without its fluctuations. For instance, the August contract saw a rise of $2.22 over the past week as of late July, but there were periods of setbacks amid market fluctuations. The USDA's national base hog price has varied, recently declining by a few dollars but generally supporting prices near the $108-$110 range.
Pork cutout values have also been a contributing factor. Ham primals have notably strengthened, supporting hog prices, while the belly led the charge lower, down $10.83.
The Commitment of Traders reports a slight reduction in managed money net long positions, suggesting some cautious positioning from speculative traders. However, open interest remains substantial. Hog slaughter volumes have remained stable with minor week-over-year declines, which can influence supply expectations and futures pricing.
Fast forward to August 25, 2025, Lean Hog futures closed at $107.125, an increase of $0.100. Lean hog futures also closed at 60 cents on Thursday, an increase of a dime. Shipments for the week were tallied at 27,573 MT, an increase from the week prior. The week to date total stood at 1.859 million head.
However, the USDA's Thursday PM FOB plant pork cutout value was $2 lower at $114.00 per cwt. Export Sales for pork totaled 17,003 MT in the week ending on July 24, marking a 6-week low.
In summary, Lean Hog futures currently demonstrate a somewhat mixed but cautiously optimistic trend with moderate upward price movement in nearby contracts, supported by stable supply and improving pork cutout values. Market volatility remains present due to demand and supply factors, making short-term forecasts cautiously optimistic but subject to fluctuations.
In light of the ongoing trend, some investors might consider diversifying their portfolio to include Lean Hog futures, given the generally positive movement in the stock-market. As the CME Lean Hog Index and nearby contracts like August 2025 continue to post gains, there could be potential opportunities for finance in this segment of the stock-market. However, it's crucial to keep in mind the market's volatility due to demand and supply factors, requiring careful investing strategies.
