Trade relations with China have been reported as decreasing, according to Russian government statements.
Russia and China, two economic powerhouses, have experienced a decline in their mutual trade in 2025, marking the first decrease since the start of the war. This decline, reported by Anton Alikhanov, the Russian Minister of Industry and Trade, is attributed to several intertwined factors.
The western sanctions and economic pressure impacting both Russia and China have constrained trade growth. Additionally, the saturation of certain segments of the Russian market with Chinese products, particularly in consumer goods like automobiles, has reached an "expansion limit," leading to cooled demand. Volatility in global commodity prices, affecting trade volumes, has also played a role, particularly with fluctuations in raw materials.
Moreover, China has shifted its business focus towards ASEAN nations, increasing investments in Southeast Asia rather than Russia. This shift, combined with reduced Chinese purchases of key Russian resources like oil, oil products, LNG, timber, and coal, has contributed to the decline. However, there have been small increases in pipeline gas and non-ferrous metals, but these have not been sufficient to counterbalance the overall fall.
Logistics and transport bottlenecks, including delays at checkpoints and difficulties in sea transshipment, have also hindered trade efficiency. Despite these challenges, Alikhanov remains optimistic about the future of Russia-China trade. He expects a gradual increase in the share of high-tech and innovative products in mutual trade, aiming for stability through joint projects in electronics, automotive, metallurgy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals valued around $130 billion.
In the first seven months of 2025, bilateral trade fell by 8.1% year-on-year to about $125.8 billion, reversing the record $245 billion reached in 2024. This decline reflects the combined pressure of sanctions, market saturation, declining commodity purchases, and logistical challenges confronted by the two countries.
Specifically, coal exports to China decreased by 10% to 38.97 million tons, petroleum product exports by 28% to 5.51 million tons, and LNG exports by 13% to 3.22 million tons in the first half of 2025. Oil supplies from Russia to China decreased by 11% to 49.11 million tons, while timber exports dropped by 10% to 4.53 million tons.
However, industrial metals exports from Russia to China showed significant growth. Nickel increased by 94%, aluminum by 91%, and copper more than doubled. Supplies of pipeline gas to China increased by 23%, and supplies from China to Russia decreased by 9%, primarily due to a 61% drop in car imports.
The Institute of Gaidar noted the decrease in car imports from China. Alikhanov also expects more moderate growth rates in mutual trade with China in the medium term. Despite the challenges, the future of Russian-Chinese trade seems to be shifting towards industrial and technological cooperation, offering a promising path for stability and growth in the years to come.
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