The Outcome of Projecting Entire Trade, Export, and Import Figures for 2024 Remains Uncertain and Equal
In the early stages of President Trump's second term, trade data is expected to unveil record-breaking numbers for exports, imports, and trade deficits. While the exact figures for total trade, exports, and imports are up in the air, a strong likelihood exists that the U.S. will surpass the $5 trillion mark for total trade for the third consecutive year. Export and import records will likely be smashed as well, with top ports like Port Laredo and the Port of Los Angeles making their mark.
Mexico is set to overtake China and Canada to become the U.S.'s top trade partner, with a historic total of $800 billion in exports and imports. The Port of Laredo will also break its own record for the most trade in a single port, reaching an estimated $300 billion. Look out for JFK International Airport, the Port of Houston, the Port of Newark, Detroit's Ambassador Bridge, and Los Angeles International Airport to make the top 10, with the Port of Huron possibly moving up the ranks as well.
As for the lead categories, the primary aviation category is expected to reclaim the number one spot for exports, with a total of around $121 billion. Countries such as Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom will likely be setting records, but Canada and China will fall short, with China faring the worst. Exports of gasoline and other refined petroleum products will hit a new high, while oil exports might slip from their 2022 peak.
Imports, too, will see notable milestones, with the No. 1 import category, passenger vehicles, surpassing $200 billion for the second time and eclipsing oil, which now ranks second. Computers are set to trump the cell phone category for the first time, while medicines in individual doses will set a record for the sixth time in eight years, replaced by India as the leading importer.
In summary, the U.S. is on the cusp of seeing record-breaking trade figures and shifts in its trade dynamics, with Port Laredo, Mexico, and the primary aviation category leading the charge.
Despite China's potential decrease in exports, particularly in the oil sector, the U.S. is still expected to set a new record for importing oil from China, contributing to the nation's record trade deficit during President Trump's second term. The significant increase in oil imports from China could surpass previous records, reflecting the global demand for energy resources.
