Stock Market in Indonesia Predicted to Commence Beneath the Surface of the Water
Jakarta Composite Index and Asian Markets Face Cautious Movement
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and broader Asian markets are expected to face cautious or weak movement on Wednesday, based on recent developments and global market forecasts.
In the recent session on Tuesday, the JCI closed down by 0.27%, at 7,905.76, forming a bearish engulfing candle near resistance with negative RSI divergence. This signals potential downside risk, and technical analysts advise a "wait and see" approach with close attention to the critical support around 7,890; closing below this could prompt further position reductions.
The JCI has struggled to break the resistance zone between 8,000 and 8,017, and while a long-term inverted head & shoulders pattern suggests a target near 8,600, bearish signals and resistance remain dominant in the short term. This aligns with a general recommendation for traders to maintain trailing stops and look for selective opportunities in sectors with positive catalysts only.
The global outlook is described as murky or weak, largely due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict) and mixed performance in Europe and the US. Asian bourses are expected to be flat or with little movement, reflecting overall investor caution. The Indonesian market is expected to show limited movement as well, indicated by the recent snap from a short winning streak and losses in key financial and resource sectors.
The central bank in Indonesia will conclude its monetary policy meeting later today and announce its decision on interest rates. Traders are also looking ahead to the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting later today.
In the Indonesian market, Bank Danamon Indonesia collected 0.40 percent, while Bank Negara Indonesia dropped 0.92 percent. United Tractors declined 1.35 percent, Astra International skyrocketed 9.95 percent. Bank Central Asia tanked 2.30 percent, Bank Rakyat Indonesia tumbled 1.94 percent. Energi Mega Persada surged 4.31 percent, Astra Agro Lestari rallied 5.71 percent. Timah added 0.50 percent and Bumi Resources accelerated 3.70 percent. Aneka Tambang stumbled 3.10 percent, Vale Indonesia improved 0.81 percent. Semen Indonesia soared 3.85 percent, Indofood Sukses Makmur retreated 1.55 percent. Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison strengthened 1.38 percent, Indocement surrendered 1.93 percent. Bank CIMB Niaga rose 0.29 percent, while Bank Mandiri skidded 1.03 percent.
The Indonesia stock market has fallen almost 70 points or 0.9 percent. The JCI finished modestly lower on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery is currently down $1.07 or 1.69 percent at $62.35 per barrel, due to supply side concerns from OPEC unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts. The NASDAQ tumbled 314.82 points or 1.46 percent, and the S&P 500 sank 37.78 points or 0.59 percent.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the symposium on Friday. The lead from Wall Street is soft, with the Dow rising 10.45 points or 0.02 percent. The benchmark lending rate (5.25 percent), deposit facility rate (4.50 percent), and lending facility rate (6.00 percent) are all expected to remain unchanged.
In summary, the Jakarta Composite Index is hovering near key support levels and facing short-term bearish technical signals, thus likely to trend sideways to lower unless it breaks resistance decisively. Asian markets overall show an expectation of limited or weak movement amid global uncertainty. Market advice is to adopt a cautious stance, use trailing stops, and seek sector rotation opportunities with positive catalysts. This forecast holds for Wednesday’s trading session given the latest technical indicators and the global market environment as of late August 2025.
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