Spain to Outshine Euro Area with Anticipated Growth Rates of 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, According to Natixis CIB Forecasts.
Revised Article:
Spanish GDP Set for Strong Growth, Despite Moderating Q1 Progress
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In stark contrast to Italy, Natixis CIB predicts that Spain's economy will experience a significant surge, with the Spanish GDP expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. This robust growth outlook places Spain well above its European counterparts, even though the first quarter of this year demonstrated a moderation in growth, dipping to a 2.8% annualized rate compared to the 3.3% registered in the previous year.
You might also find it fascinating to know that Italy's economic growth in Q1 2025 showed a more pronounced slowdown compared to Spain, with the economy growing by 0.6%, one tenth less than expected. Specifically, private consumption saw a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter increase, five tenths less than in the final quarter of 2024, while gross fixed capital formation followed suit with a 1.2% decline, two points and three tenths less.
However, the bright side of the picture is that foreign trade contributed positively to the final figure, due to the robust performance of exports and the deceleration in foreign purchases, contributing two tenths to the overall growth.
As we move forward into the second quarter, Spanish GDP growth is anticipated to continue being driven primarily by domestic demand. With a forecasted GDP growth of 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, Spain will maintain its title as the most dynamic country of the four major countries in the eurozone.
Meanwhile, the overall European economy demonstrated stability and resilience in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations by rebounding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter from the 0.2% in Q4 2024. Despite geopolitical and commercial uncertainty, the European economy remains a beacon of strength amidst challenging circumstances.
Looking ahead, uncertainty persists after U.S. President Donald Trump implemented "reciprocal" tariffs in April, which were later paused for 90 days. These tariffs may impact companies on the continent and potentially affect household consumption, business investments, and net trade in the following quarters.
As always, stay informed with the latest economic news by following EUROPAPRESS. In addition to the Spanish and Italian economies, keep an eye on the Panama Canal, which plans to invest $3 billion over the next five years in new businesses.
Related Topics:
- Natixis CIB
- Spain
- GDP
- Donald Trump
- Eurozone
- Economic growth
- Private consumption
- Foreign trade
- Gross fixed capital formation
- Investments
- EUROPAPRESS
Insights:
- Italy's Economy: Despite Italy’s forecasted growth, it remains below the euro-area average and lags behind several European peers.
- Spain vs Italy: Spain's economic output is roughly 5% above pre-pandemic levels, while Italy’s is about 5% below.
- Trade Tensions: The prolonged trade conflict scenario could reduce Italy’s GDP growth by roughly 0.5 to 1 percentage point over 2025-27, while less export-dependent countries may fare better.
Investments in new businesses across the Panama Canal, including Spain, could potentially benefit from the stable and resilient European economy, as forecasted by Natixis CIB, with Spain's GDP expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. On the other hand, the finance sector should closely monitor ongoing trade tensions, as they could significantly impact the business environment and economic growth, especially in export-reliant economies like Italy.
