Shares in Commerzbank now available for purchase.
UniCredit, the Italian banking giant, is poised to make a significant move in the ongoing saga between German persistence and Italian expansionist drive. With CEO Andrea Orcel now controlling 29% of Commerzbank's physical shares, the ball is in UniCredit's court. They have the strategic options to set the takeover lever, potentially going for the final percentage point to end the poker game.
However, Orcel has indicated that UniCredit may choose to wait and see how Commerzbank develops. This cautious approach could be influenced by the latest Commerzbank figures, which indicate the need for urgent action for shareholders, but the stock price still remains 18% below the 52-week high.
Commerzbank, on the other hand, is focusing on its independence and plans to bolster its growth story with the Q3 figures to be released on November 6. CEO Bettina Orlopp has reaffirmed her negative stance on a potential merger with UniCredit, stating that any potential acquisition would be unfriendly and large, and pointing out significant overlaps in corporate customer business and difficult cost synergies.
The German government, as the second-largest shareholder with approximately 12% of Commerzbank shares, has shown resistance against an Italian takeover. A sale of the German government's shares in Commerzbank is currently ruled out, signaling a potential obstacle for UniCredit's ambitious plans.
The negotiations between the two parties have been ongoing for over a year, with Orlopp arguing that there is no additional revenue potential through a merger with UniCredit subsidiary HVB. She also highlighted significant overlaps in corporate customer business and difficult cost synergies.
For those interested in making investment decisions regarding Commerzbank, a free analysis from September 18 provides guidance on whether it's worth investing in Commerzbank or if selling is a better option. The link for the latest analysis on whether to buy or sell Commerzbank shares can be found in the article.
In the end, the decisive threshold lies in the Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act (SAT) 30% mark. If a shareholder exceeds this limit, they must make a binding takeover offer to all other shareholders. With Orcel planning to increase UniCredit's stake in Commerzbank to just under 30% by the end of the year, the stage is set for a potential showdown.
However, Orcel has left open the possibility of continuing to wait or pulling the decisive percentage point trigger soon. If his plans for a strong European player at Commerzbank are not supported, he would even contemplate selling the stake to a non-European investor, following free market rules.
As the drama unfolds, one thing is clear: the future of Commerzbank is shrouded in uncertainty, with strategic moves and resistance from both sides. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story.
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