Revised Estimate for Romania's Economic Growth in 2025 by Erste Group Drops to 1.3%
Revised Article:
While Q1 GDP growth clocked in slower than anticipated (+0.3% y/y), and high-frequency data hints at a tepid Q2, Erste Group has revised its overall 2023 GDP growth forecast to a moderated 1.3%, close to the government's 1.4% revised estimate.
Owing to anticipated fiscal consolidation measures, consumption is set to cool off in 2025, with investments serving as the key driver for growth this year. It's crucial to keep an eye on EU Funds absorption as it plays a significant role in boosting growth.
Though net export effects may remain negative, they're expected to be less severe this year, either due to increased external demand or base effects paired with weakened domestic consumption.
The agriculture sector might exert a positive influence on economic growth, with the effects mainly visible in Q3.
Erste Group has kept its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.1%, but with a note of caution. The research note indicates potential downside risks for the 2026 prediction, as well. On the other hand, the government's CNP is more conservative, pegging 2026 growth at 2.4%.
iulian@our website
(Photo credit: Ifeelstock/Dreamstime.com)
Additional Insights:
- 2022 GDP Growth: The actual GDP growth for 2022 was reported between 4.0% and 4.8% by different sources; however, Erste Group and the CNP do not have a specific forecast for 2022 at this time.
- 2026 GDP Growth Forecast: CNP projects a 2.4% GDP growth for Romania in 2026, while Erste Group does not provide a specific Romanian 2026 GDP growth forecast in its public documents.
Key Points:- 2022: Actual GDP growth ranged from 4.0% to 4.8%, but no current forecast for 2022 exists.- 2026: CNP projects 2.4% GDP growth, while Erste Group does not specify a Romanian 2026 GDP growth forecast.
Businesses should be aware that consumption is expected to decline in 2025 due to anticipated fiscal consolidation measures, making investments a crucial component for growth this year. In the realm of finance, it's essential to monitor EU Funds absorption as it significantly contributes to boosting growth.
