Reduction in exports coupled with an unchanged imports situation leads to a declining trade surplus
In the opening months of 2025, Russia's foreign trade landscape underwent significant changes. The trade surplus decreased by approximately 19.2% year-on-year to $57.3 billion, primarily due to a decline in exports alongside stable or slightly increased imports.
The export sector experienced a drop of 5.9-6.3% year-on-year, with revenues falling to around $195.5–196.1 billion from approximately $208 billion in the previous year. This decline was mainly attributed to lower prices and volumes of mineral products such as oil and gas. Oil exports dropped from $131.4 billion to $110.1 billion, impacted by falling global oil prices and halted gas transit through Ukraine.
In contrast, imports remained relatively steady or rose slightly, increasing about 1.0% to $138.7 billion from $137.4 billion in the same period last year. Machinery, equipment, and vehicles were the largest import categories at $63 billion.
While mineral raw materials fell sharply, exports of metals, chemical products, machinery, and equipment grew enough to partially offset declines in food and raw materials. The export composition shifted, with metals and chemical products seeing an increase of $4.2 billion and $16.2 billion respectively.
The trade with specific regions showed a general pattern of export decreases balanced by steady or increasing imports. However, the halt in gas transit through Ukraine suggests disruption in traditional export routes to Europe, contributing to the decline.
The balance of services deficit widened, increasing outflows and reducing the overall current account surplus, indirectly influencing the trade surplus.
Russia's trade with Asia and Europe also saw changes. Exports to Asian countries fell by 4.6% to $149.1 billion, while exports to Europe decreased by 12.3% to $29.2 billion. Imports from Asia increased by 1% to $87.6 billion, but imports from Europe decreased by 2.4% in volume to $34.1 billion.
The total foreign trade turnover for the first half of 2025 was $327.1 billion, down 3.6% from the same period in 2024. Imports increased by 0.8% to $131.6 billion, while exports of textiles and products made from them increased by 1.6% to $8.8 billion.
Exports of food products and agricultural raw materials (excluding textiles) decreased by 14.6% to $17.8 billion, but exports of chemical industry products increased by 22% to $16.2 billion. Russian imports of machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles decreased by 4.9% to $63 billion. On the other hand, exports of metals and products made from them increased by 15.1% to $31.9 billion.
Despite these changes, the share of Asian countries in Russia's total foreign trade remains at 72.4%, with imports from Asia increasing by 1% to $87.6 billion. The share of European countries in Russia's total foreign trade remains unspecified in the current data.
In the agricultural sector, the decrease in Russian wheat exports abroad in the second half of the agricultural season is linked to a strengthening ruble and decreased stocks in key export regions of Russia.
[1] Source 1 [2] Source 2 [3] Not provided in the data [4] Source 4 [5] Source 5
The decline in Russia's export sector, particularly in mineral products like oil and gas, contributed to a decrease in the country's foreign trade revenue, with financial losses totaling around $18-19 billion in the first half of 2025. The finance industry, therefore, experienced a significant impact due to the reduced export revenues.
Moreover, the shift in Russia's export composition demonstrated an increase in exports of metals, chemical products, machinery, and equipment, which could have potential implications for the finance industry as these sectors showed growth, indicating increased financial transactions within these domains.
