Projected per capita national debt to surpass fivefold of current value by 2060
The National Assembly Budget Office has released a sobering long-term fiscal outlook, projecting that each Korean citizen could be carrying a share of the national debt worth approximately 130 million won ($93,700) by 2060. This significant rise in South Korea's national debt per capita is primarily caused by a combination of growing government debt and a shrinking population.
The government fiscal deficit is projected to worsen substantially from 85.5 trillion won in 2025 to 270.7 trillion won by 2072. To cover these increasing deficits, South Korea will have to issue more treasury bonds, causing total government debt to rise sharply. At the same time, South Korea's population is expected to decline from about 51.68 million in 2025 to 36.22 million by 2072. This demographic shrinkage raises the debt burden per person, since fewer citizens will share the growing national debt.
The demographic trend reflects lower birth rates and an aging population, leading to fewer workers supporting more retirees. This worsens fiscal pressure as pension and healthcare costs grow, and the labor-to-retiree ratio declines, reducing economic growth and tax revenue. As a result, welfare spending is expected to rise sharply as the population ages, widening the managed fiscal balance deficit from 85.5 trillion won in 2025 to 270.7 trillion won in 2072.
The IMF expects South Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 59.2 percent by 2030, surpassing the average for non-reserve advanced economies, second only to the Czech Republic. South Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio reached 50.7 percent for the first time, crossing the 50 percent mark, in 2023. In 2016, South Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio was 39.1 percent, significantly lower than the comparable average of 47.4 percent.
The per capita national debt is expected to rise more than fivefold from 24.58 million won in 2025 to 130 million won for Koreans born between 1995 and 2000. The citizen's share of the state debt is expected to reach 31.65 million won in 2030, 86.13 million won in 2050, and 201.63 million won by 2072.
The report was provided to Rep. Choi Eun-seok of the opposition People Power Party. The government debt of South Korea surpassed 1,200 trillion won in 2023. The IMF's April 2025 Fiscal Monitor predicts the debt-to-GDP ratio for advanced economies without reserve currencies to be 54.3 percent. The IMF's prediction for South Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio in 2030 is 59.2 percent.
In conclusion, the main factors driving the surge in per capita national debt are rising fiscal deficits covered by increasing debt issuance, population decline concentrating the debt burden on fewer individuals, and demographic aging increasing social spending and reducing economic growth potential. Those currently in their 20s and 30s are likely to face a debt burden around 130 million won at retirement.
The increasing fiscal deficits and population decline are driving the surge in South Korea's per capita national debt, forcing the government to issue more treasury bonds, thereby increasing government debt in the finance industry. This rising debt per person is a result of fewer citizens sharing the growing national debt in the business sector, while the aging population leads to increased pension and healthcare costs, which strains the country's economy and widens the managed fiscal balance deficit.
