projected increase in Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for June 2026 due to inflation rise
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce a modest increase in Social Security benefits for 2026. According to recent estimates, the projected average Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) increase for retirees next year is approximately 2.6%.
This projected increase is slightly higher than the 2.5% COLA for Social Security beneficiaries in 2025. The Consumer Price Index for all items (CPI-U) rose 2.9% from December 2023 to December 2024, which may have influenced the higher COLA projection for 2026.
The 2026 estimate of about 2.6% is described as being within the "average" range over the past two decades, where the average COLA has been roughly 2.6%. However, some experts highlight that Social Security benefits have lost purchasing power overall since 2010, as past COLAs have often not kept up fully with inflation experienced by seniors.
A special rule called the "hold harmless provision" protects Social Security benefit payments from decreasing due to an increase in the Medicare Part B premium. This provision does not apply to those who pay an income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) premium and don't have it deducted from their Social Security check. It also does not apply to those who enroll in Part B for the first time in 2025 or to those whose Medicare Part B premiums are paid by state Medicaid agencies.
The average Social Security monthly check for retired workers was $2,005.05 for June 2025. The Medicare Part B premium for 2025 is $185, which is $10.30 higher than the 2024 premium. Medicare Part B premiums for November 2024 through January 2025 are deducted directly from monthly Social Security benefits.
The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments is determined by the percentage changes in a subset of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI-W is used as the benchmark rate to compute the annual COLA.
The Senior Citizens' League (TSCL) has raised its prediction for the 2026 COLA from 2.5% in May to 2.6% in June. The CPI-E price index, reflecting the costs of older adults more accurately, has been proposed as an alternative to the CPI-W for COLA calculation.
While the 2026 increase represents modest inflation relief, it is only a slight uptick from recent years' adjustments and remains in the typical historic COLA range. This modest rise reflects ongoing inflation dynamics, including tariff impacts on consumer prices, and signals a gradual increase beyond the 2025 adjustment but not a drastic change.
- Despite the projected 2.6% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026, some experts warn that over the last decade, Social Security benefits have seen a decrease in purchasing power compared to inflation experienced by seniors.
- To effectively manage personal-finance and business expenses, it's crucial to keep track of the cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security benefits, as they can significantly impact the annual income of retirees.
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