Potential threats to German employment due to escalating US-China trade disputes
Take a note, folks, 'cause the ongoing trade war between the US and China ain't just screwing with the economy across the pond, it could be a punch in the gut for Germany too. According to a study by Allianz Trade, a credit insurer, this tariff dispute could spark a shift in Chinese exports to European markets, hit hardest by Germany.
Jasmin Groeschl, an economist at Allianz Trade, ain't pulling any punches. He reckons if there's no truce on this trade tiff, as many as 17,000 to 25,000 industrial jobs in Germany could go down the drain. That's around 0.2 to 0.3 percent of the total employment in the German industry, which hovers at around eight million people.
Now, who's gonna feel the brunt? It'll be tough luck for industries like mechanical engineering, textiles, electronics, computers, motor vehicles, and even household and sanitary products manufacturers. Manufacturing and southern Germany, particularly the regions of Upper Franconia, Tübingen, or the Freiburg area, could be hit the hardest.
Be prepared for a tidal wave of job losses. The machinery and equipment sector could be hit the worst with around 13,000 to 19,000 jobs on the chopping block. In the non-metallic mineral products sector, around 1,200 to 1,800 jobs are at risk, and in the textile industry, around 2,200 to 3,300 jobs are threatened.
Source: ntv.de, rts
[1] Enrichment Data: The US-China tariff dispute is expected to have significant impacts on the German economy, particularly due to the potential diversion of Chinese goods into the European market. Among the industries likely to face job losses are mechanical engineering, textile industry, household and sanitary products manufacturers, electronics, computers, and vehicle manufacturers.[2] Enrichment Data: A broader economic impact is anticipated as the tariff war strains German businesses, with a third of firms planning job cuts in 2025 due to economic pessimism.
- The ongoing US-China trade war, as suggested in the community policy and business discussions, may result in a shift of Chinese exports to European markets, with Germany being among the hardest hit due to tariff disputes.
- According to the estimates by Jasmin Groeschl, an economist at Allianz Trade, failure to resolve this employment policy issue could lead to potential job losses in the range of 17,000 to 25,000, primarily in the industrial sector.
- The manufacturing industry, as well as regions such as Upper Franconia, Tübingen, and the Freiburg area, could be the most affected by this employment policy issue, where industries like mechanical engineering, electronics, computers, and vehicle manufacturing, may experience significant lay-offs.
- Financial projections indicate that the sectors such as machinery and equipment, non-metallic mineral products, and the textile industry could be at risk of losing approximately 13,000 to 19,000, 1,200 to 1,800, and 2,200 to 3,300 jobs, respectively, due to this employment policy challenge. In addition, jobs in household and sanitary products manufacturing could also be at risk, as anticipated by recent discussions on the trade war's impact on various industries.
