Potential Impact of Iran-Israel Tensions on Pakistan's Stability
Title: The Chilling Effects of the Israel-Iran Conflict on Pakistan
The intense Israel-Iran conflict has far-reaching consequences for Pakistan, impacting security, geopolitics, and economic aspects of the country.
Iran shares a 909-kilometer (560-mile) border with Pakistan's restless Balochistan province. The border crossings at Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan in southwest Balochistan have remained operational for returning Pakistanis, as all formal border crossings with Iran have been temporarily shut for an indefinite period amid ongoing strikes between Israel and Iran.
Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is expected to meet US President Donald Trump during his official visit to Washington, an event of significance amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
Complex Relationship between Pakistan and Iran
Pakistan, a predominantly Sunni Muslim nation, shares a complex relationship with majority Shia Iran. Coordinated attacks from Baloch separatists fighting for independence against the Pakistani state have caused tension in the cross-border region. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) asserts that Pakistan's central government is exploiting the region's resources unfairly.
The BLA has for decades launched attacks against the government, armed forces, and Chinese interests in the region, causing concern for regional stability.
Looming Threat for Pakistan amid Regional Tension
The Israel-Iran war signals a critical turning point for Middle East geopolitics and Pakistan. According to analyst Raza Rumi, "Pakistan, with ties to key Gulf allies and a nuanced relationship with Iran, will be under pressure to maintain neutrality while safeguarding strategic interests."
The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its sixth day, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announcing attacks on Tehran, Iran's capital. This escalation fuels fears of an all-out war in the region.
Security Implications for Pakistan
Increasing conflict could have severe security implications for Pakistan. A possible collapse of Tehran could trigger autonomy claims within the Baloch region of Iran, emboldening separatist elements in Pakistan. Analyst Ghaffar Hussain foresees the need for Pakistan to bolster border surveillance and carefully balance law enforcement with diplomatic sensitivity toward Tehran.
Pakistani security expert Muhammad Shoaib notes that a war along the western border with Iran would be challenging, especially for Pakistan's restless Balochistan province. Such a development would risk destabilizing the region and present a security challenge.
Possible Economic Implications
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has refocused attention on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Analyst Rumi suggests that a broader Middle East conflict, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could disrupt global oil supplies, potentially driving prices higher. This disruption would severely impact Pakistan's already fragile economy, grappling with inflation, currency depreciation, and energy shortages.
The rising fuel costs could disrupt affected markets and key sectors, exacerbating Pakistan's fiscal crisis and further straining vulnerable households. Whether Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, but it would create turmoil for the entire region, including GCC nations.
Rising Sectarian Tensions
Pakistan, a predominantly Sunni Muslim nation, has a sizable Shia Muslim community. The conflict could spark a potential increase in sectarian tensions within Pakistan, fueled by propagandized narratives, targeted violence, and proxy activities. Analyst Rumi warns that if the narrative is infused with religious symbolism and sectarian rhetoric, it could be dangerous.
The Impact on Pakistan's Relationship with the US and Regional Powers
The complex nature of Pakistan's relationships with both Iran and the United States could create diplomatic challenges as Pakistan navigates its response to the conflict. An incapacitated or weakened Iran might reduce Pakistan’s leverage in the region, potentially complicating Pakistan’s internal and regional security calculus. Pakistan's strategic significance may rise due to proximity and potential involvement, but this could risk entanglement in wider regional conflicts.
Facing Internal and External Threats
The Israel-Iran conflict has brought attention to Pakistan's internal security challenges, border security risks, and financial vulnerabilities. As the situation unfolds, Pakistan must deftly balance its strategic and financial interests while managing its security, diplomatic, and economic strategies carefully to mitigate the impact on the nation.
Sources:[1] https://www.geo.tv/latest/346870-israel-strikes-iran-military-sites-in-syria-tehran-vows-crushing-response[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/2/pakistan-wary-of-congressional-iran-sanctions-amid-gingrich-visit[3] https://www.geo.tv/latest/346202-pk-s-exports-decline-16-9-in-january-2021[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-future-looks-bright-while-irans-appears-bleak-2021-03-03/[5] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/11/06/the-balance-of-change-in-the-middle-east/
- The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns for Pakistan, particularly as the country navigates its complex relationship with majority Shia Iran and manages potential internal and external security threats.
- As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, an all-out war in the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies, potentially driving prices higher and exacerbating Pakistan's already fragile economy, grappling with inflation, currency depreciation, and energy shortages.
- As Pakistan is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump amid the Israel-Iran conflict, analysts predict that Pakistan will be under pressure to maintain neutrality while safeguarding strategic interests, given its ties with key Gulf allies and nuanced relationship with Iran.
- The Israel-Iran war could have severe security implications for Pakistan, as a possible collapse of Tehran could trigger autonomy claims within the Baloch region of Iran, potentially emboldening separatist elements in Pakistan, leading to a potential increase in sectarian tensions within Pakistan and added regional instability.
