Plummet in Automobile Shares: Relief for BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Other Automakers?
In the aftermath of a recent stock sell-off, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the future of German automakers such as BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche. However, several factors are poised to impact their performance.
BMW, despite experiencing a setback due to weak business in China and issues with braking systems, continues to maintain its guidance for sustained demand in 2025. The company anticipates flat earnings compared to 2024 and an automotive EBIT margin between 5% to 7%. BMW is relatively optimistic about the potential impact of tariffs, forecasting only a marginal effect on its margins [1].
Volkswagen, on the other hand, presents a mixed picture. While some models like the Golf and T-Roc have seen sales declines, others like the Tiguan have improved slightly. The company faces challenges from tariff costs and fierce competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers and emerging electric vehicle rivals, which put pressure on volumes and margins [2][3].
Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, both part of the Volkswagen Group, are also under pressure. They have lowered expectations or withdrawn guidance amid rising tariff costs and uncertain market conditions. Chinese brands are outselling Mercedes, and Tesla and other competitors are challenging market share. Porsche, like its parent company, shares concerns over tariffs and global market dynamics, though specific analyst guidance is less detailed in available sources [1][3][4].
Key factors that will influence the future performance of these automakers include tariffs and trade costs, inflation and interest rates, competition from Chinese brands and shifting electric vehicle market dynamics, model portfolios and innovation pace, and sales volume trends [1][3][4].
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about BMW due to its steady guidance, while Volkswagen, Mercedes, and Porsche face more uncertainty due to tariffs, competition, and shifting market conditions. These factors are critical to watch as they will influence future earnings and stock performance following the recent sell-off [1][4].
For short-term investors, it is recommended to exercise caution when investing in BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and their peers due to the current negative chart trends, operational developments, and the risk of further price losses. However, analysts and BÖRSE ONLINE are recommending buying Porsche AG (WKN: PAG911) [5].
It is important to note that there is a conflict of interest disclosure for the CEO and majority shareholder of the publisher Börsenmedien AG, Mr. Bernd Förtsch, who has direct and indirect positions in Volkswagen Vz., Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche AG. Similarly, the managing editor, Mr. Frank Pöpsel, has direct and indirect positions in Volkswagen Vz.
References: [1] Börsen-Zeitung, 2025. "BMW and Volkswagen Show Cautious Optimism Amid Market Uncertainties." Accessed 2025-06-01. [2] Handelsblatt, 2025. "Volkswagen Struggles with Sales Declines and Competition." Accessed 2025-06-01. [3] Financial Times, 2025. "Chinese Brands and Electric Vehicles Pose Threat to German Automakers." Accessed 2025-06-01. [4] Börse ONLINE, 2025. "Porsche AG: Attractive Valuations and Promising Turnaround Opportunities." Accessed 2025-06-01. [5] Börse ONLINE, 2025. "Analyst Recommendation: Buy Porsche AG (WKN: PAG911)." Accessed 2025-06-01.
- In the case of BMW, despite challenges in specific areas such as China and braking systems, the company is still confident about maintaining incentives for steady demand in 2025, forecasting flat earnings and an automotive EBIT margin between 5% to 7%.
- In the face of tariffs, competition from Chinese brands, and uncertain electric vehicle market dynamics, both Mercedes-Benz and Porsche have adjusted their guidance or withdrawn it entirely, reflecting their concerns about future earnings and stock performance.
