OPEC+ Considers Major Production Boost as U.S. Inventories Rise and Russia Faces International Pressure
Oil prices are volatile as OPEC+ considers a significant production increase, while international pressure on Russia mounts. Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rise and concerns about a government shutdown and Kurdish oil exports weigh on prices.
OPEC+ insiders have revealed to Reuters that the group could boost daily oil production by up to 500,000 barrels in November. This decision is expected to be formalised at the OPEC+ virtual meeting on October 5, with Saudi Arabia reportedly aiming to regain market share. If prices do not recover further, Brent could close at its lowest level since late May, and WTI could finish at a level not seen since May.
The Group of Seven nations' finance ministers are planning to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those continuing to boost purchases of Russian oil. Concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of Iraq's Kurdish oil exports are also weighing on crude prices. An increase of 500,000 barrels per day could send crude oil prices lower, initially to support at $58.00, before testing this year's lows around $55.00.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after four consecutive days of declines. U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose last week due to softened refining activity and demand. Potentially higher OPEC+ supply, refinery maintenance, and seasonal demand dip could accelerate oil stock builds in the U.S. and elsewhere. OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase for October. Brent crude futures gained 0.3% to $64.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.3% to $60.67 a barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent has plunged 8.3%, and WTI is 7.6% lower.
OPEC+ is set to decide on a substantial production increase, which could further impact oil prices. International pressure on Russia's oil sector is also escalating, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market. U.S. inventories and potential supply disruptions continue to influence prices, with both Brent and WTI experiencing significant weekly declines.
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