Ontario's financial situation shows no signs of reaching a balanced budget, according to a watchdog, despite claims made by the Ford government.
Ontario Government's Budget Balance in Question, According to Report
A report published today by The Canadian Press has raised concerns about the Ontario government's ability to balance the budget by 2027-28. The report, authored by Allison Jones, predicts that the province might not come to balance until at least 2030.
The report discusses the economic outlook for Ontario up to 2029-30. It suggests that the government's projection of balancing the budget by 2027-28 is based on stronger tax revenue gains and significantly lower program spending growth than the Financial Accountability Officer (FAO) forecasts.
The FAO's reports do not encompass the entirety of Ontario's finances, according to a spokesperson for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy. However, the report does highlight several potential challenges that could impact the province's economic growth and, consequently, its ability to balance the budget.
One such challenge is the expected impact of U.S. tariffs. The report indicates that these tariffs are expected to reduce demand for Ontario's exports, which could slow the province's economic growth. Real GDP growth in Ontario is projected to slow to 0.9% this year and 1% next year as a result.
The report also predicts that businesses in Ontario are likely to cut back on investment and hiring due to these economic conditions. This could further exacerbate the province's budget deficit.
Based on the current economic outlook, government policies, and plans, a deficit of $9 billion is projected for the period up to 2029-30.
Despite these concerns, a spokesperson for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy maintains that the province remains on a "clear path" to balance.
The Minister of Finance in Ontario in 2025 is Paul Calandra. Jeffrey Novak serves as the Financial Accountability Officer in Ontario. The report was first published on Sept. 17, 2025.
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