Negative statistics for the construction of the North Baltic Canal
The Kiel Canal, a vital waterway in Germany, has seen a significant decline in ship traffic over the past decade. This decline, according to shipbroker Jan Klein of UCA United Canal Agency, is primarily due to a combination of factors that include disruptions in shipping routes and environmental challenges.
One of the main reasons for concern among shipowners is the unpredictability of the canal passage. The expansion of the Kiel Canal, planned for completion at an unspecified date, is anticipated with great anticipation as it may address some of these concerns.
The evaluation of the annual balance sheet for the Kiel Canal has been delayed this year, with the results expected at the end of February. The decline in ship passages is causing concern, with some shipowners considering alternative routes like the one around Skagen.
The number of ship passages through the Kiel Canal has been declining since 2014, with 32,600 ships in 2014 compared to below 25,000 in 2023, marking the first time since 1945 that the annual ship passage count fell below this figure.
Recent years have seen ongoing disruptions in global container flows related to the Red Sea, where security risks have forced carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of taking shorter routes including the Kiel Canal option. These detours increase transit times and operational costs and have led some carriers to scale back scheduled services, indirectly reducing demand for the Kiel Canal route.
Additionally, low water levels caused by drought and heatwaves have hampered shipping on the Rhine River, which connects to the Kiel Canal. This has forced vessels to sail partially unloaded and raised freight costs, further discouraging use of the canal.
The speed limit on the Kiel Canal has been reduced from 15 to 12 km/h since July 1, 2023, due to construction work. The speed reduction was implemented to protect the eroded banks along the canal.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope. David-Christopher Müller, second senior of the NOKII pilotage association from Kiel, has stated that there is still light at the end of the tunnel, suggesting that if the canal passage becomes predictable again, the situation may improve.
Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal, reported a noticeable decrease in ship passages, with a potential decrease of up to ten percent. However, he suggests that if the expansion of the canal is completed and the speed limit is lifted, the canal will become more attractive to shipowners.
The repairs to the damaged areas along the canal are progressing, and the presentation of all traffic data for the Kiel Canal, including the quantities of goods transported and the size of the ships, is awaited with great anticipation.
The number of canal pilots, around 300, is calculated from the number of ships. Shipbrokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency have also reported a decrease in ship passages.
In conclusion, the decline in traffic through the Kiel Canal reflects cumulative environmental impacts, evolving global shipping routes due to geopolitical and security issues, and economic factors pushing shippers to seek alternatives beyond the Kiel Canal. The anticipated expansion of the canal and the ongoing repairs to the damaged areas along the canal offer hope for a future increase in traffic.
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Financially, the decline in ship traffic through the Kiel Canal could lead to a decrease in revenue for public-transit companies that rely on transportation fees from vessels. In tandem, the expansion of the Kiel Canal may attract more finance from investors, as it promises to address concerns and potentially increase industry profitability.
As the expansion of the Kiel Canal progresses, the transportation of goods via water may see a revival, especially when taking into consideration the potential environmental challenges faced by alternative modes of transport, such as the increased emissions from land-based transportation when shipping around Skagen.
