Navigating Dogecoin's Journey Toward $0.20: Strategies for Bulls to Reassert Dominance!
Dogecoin On The Brink: Bullish Momentum Amidst Subdued Network
- Share
- Tweet
Looks like Dogecoin is gearing up for a potential major breakout, with a monthly close above the $0.20 mark within reach. At the moment, DOGE is trading at $0.1813, following a 0.33% surge over the last 24 hours.
Even though the token still faces some hurdles on the charts, its price structure showcases significant bullish momentum compared to previous months. Past trends indicate that sustained breaks above major resistance levels often serve as a beacon for investors expecting a significant upswing.
But what about network activity? Despite Dogecoin's persistence, daily active addresses (62,588) and transaction counts (61,411) remain comparatively low, and way below the historic network spikes witnessed in late 2024. This suggests that broader retail participation might be lagging behind.
The MVRV ratio currently stands at 27.25%, offering insights into holder behavior. A reading of this magnitude indicates that on average, investors are comfortably in profit but not emotionally invested to an extent that usually triggers mass selling. Historically, extremely high MVRV values above 50% have been associated with sharp corrections. However, the current moderate readings might help alleviate immediate concerns about excessive profit-taking.
There's some encouraging news from the supply side too. Dogecoin's stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio has skyrocketed to 64.00, signaling a surge in scarcity. Higher S2F values generally mean improved scarcity fundamentals, a phenomenon that historically coincides with long-term price appreciation.
sentiment within the derivatives market strengthens Dogecoin's upward trajectory. Data from Binance shows that 71.33% of DOGEUSDT perpetual accounts are long, compared to 28.67% on the short side. This lopsided ratio of 2.49 suggests that traders are becoming increasingly bullish on DOGE's future price hikes. However, such a dominant bullish bias could also amplify volatility, especially if sentiment suddenly shifts.
All things considered, Dogecoin's technical and on-chain metrics collectively indicate a stronger case for a potential bullish continuation. While network engagement remains restrained for the most part, a combination of moderate profitability, increasing scarcity, and dominant long positioning in derivatives markets form a robust foundation for further price appreciation. A decisive monthly close above the $0.20 mark may just be the key to propelling Dogecoin towards reclaiming higher levels and eventually, its all-time high near $0.74.
The Hidden Story: Why Retail Is AWOL at Dogecoin's Party
On-chain data implies that retail investors haven't fully returned to the Dogecoin scene despite the price surge. In fact, daily active addresses (62,588) and transaction counts (61,411) are significantly below the historic network peaks recorded in late 2024.[2][5]
This absence may be due to a few factors. Firstly, it's possible that price movements have been driven more by derivatives markets and large holders rather than organic adoption. Secondly, profitability might not be driving as much transactional activity as one might expect, thanks to moderate MVRV ratios that keep holders at a profitable yet comfortable level.[2]
Lastly, it's important to consider the aftermath of earlier hype cycles. Network activity has dropped 98% since November 2024 (1.6M daily addresses → ~39k-62k), reflecting a steep decline in speculative interest.[5][2] Price recovery hasn't yet translated to renewed transactional demand, perhaps because users are intent on accumulating rather than spending during bullish phases.[2][5]
So while scarcity-fueled price appreciation is very much a thing, it doesn't necessarily translate to increased on-chain activity – at least not right away. This phenomenon underscores the multi-faceted nature of cryptocurrency markets and the myriad factors that influence price action, network activity, and long-term trends.
- Despite the bullish momentum of Dogecoin, its network activity is comparatively low, with daily active addresses and transaction counts remaining below historic network spikes.
- The MVRV ratio, a metric that highlights holder behavior, indicates that investors are comfortably in profit but not emotionally invested, which might suggest that retail participation is lagging behind.
- The lopsided ratio of long to short positions in Dogecoin's derivatives market strengthens its upward trajectory, but such a dominant bullish bias could also amplify volatility.
- On-chain data suggests that retail investors haven't fully returned to the Dogecoin scene, possibly due to the influence of derivatives markets, moderate profitability, and the aftermath of earlier hype cycles.
- A decisive monthly close above the $0.20 mark may propel Dogecoin towards reclaiming higher levels, but increased on-chain activity from retail investors might not necessarily follow the price appreciation, highlighting the complexity of the cryptocurrency market dynamics.
