"It's crystal clear that by 2025 at the latest, Russia needs to make significant changes to their current approach."
"It's crystal clear that by 2025 at the latest, Russia needs to make significant changes to their current approach."
Since the commencement of Russia's invasion, Putin's military has endured significant losses in combat, with over 3,700 tanks, 5,300 armored fighting vehicles, and 1,300 artillery pieces estimated destroyed in Ukraine. As per Colonel Markus Reisner, these equipment losses have not deterred the Russians from maintaining their momentum. However, the depleting ranks and the finite resources from the Cold War era, coupled with insufficient Western support, will eventually strain Russia's capacity to sustain the destruction at this rate.
While Russia is currently replacing downed tanks, artillery, and rocket launchers from its ample Cold War reserves, these resources are not inexhaustible. The inadequate supply from the West and the reduced combat effectiveness of modern tanks in Ukraine's battlefield have left the Russian army hoping for a swift resolution. But, as Markus Reisner points out, the Russian leadership's impatience may force them to significantly reduce their material output by the end of the year, and a more defensive combat strategy may be necessary by 2026.
The old Soviet depots may run empty as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year, but Russia does not stand alone. Other nations like China, Iran, and North Korea benefit from Moscow's cheap resources and provide military support. Additionally, intermediary countries like Turkey exploit the situation by benefiting from the conflict. With these resources, Russia can maintain its war effort in the short term, even if it cannot rebuild its reserves quickly.
The material shortages on both sides will influence the course of the war this year, but the impact may be more significant on the strategic level than the operational battlefield. Russia consistently attacks critical infrastructure with air and drone attacks, making it hard for Ukraine to sustain supplies and its population. If Ukraine collapses due to damage from these attacks, it does not matter which T-90 or T-34 tanks the Russian side deploys.
The report also suggests that the widespread assumption that Russia will exhaust its supply of military equipment is overly optimistic. Russia has numerous export partners and intermediaries, and can always obtain critical components from countries like China. Even in the event of total isolation, Russian war production might not come to a halt due to globalized supply chains.
In conclusion, Russia's military equipment losses in Ukraine have been extensive, but Russia has significant allies and resources available to maintain its war effort. The exact timeline for Russia's depletion of stocks is uncertain, but the absence of revolutionary sentiments among Russian society and the strong resolve of the Russian military suggest a prolonged conflict.
Not later than the end of the year, Russia might need to significantly reduce its material output due to depleting Cold War reserves and the inadequate supply from the West. By 2026, a more defensive combat strategy may become necessary for Russia, as the Russian leadership's impatience could impact their military capabilities.