Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, continges with fresh complications amidst a weakened state.
The Play's the Thing: The Waning Influence of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
After a turbulent clash with Israel, Iran's religious and political leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, faces a precarious struggle to keep the grip on his rule that he's held tight for over three decades. Analysts foresee a potential weakening and increasing vulnerability for the Islamic Republic.
After a lengthy silence, Khamenei finally made a reappearance on Thursday in a video message proclaiming "victory" in what seemed like an attempt to prove he was still very much alive following the 12-day conflict with Israel that ended in a truce. However, Khamenei came across as soft-spoken and hoarse – a far cry from the powerful oratory fans of him have come to expect.
normally, Khamenei delivered his messages in public settings, but this appearance left a sense of exclusion, as he spoke behind a simple backdrop of drapes and a picture of the revolutionary founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This could suggest he might still be in hiding, as Israel had declined to confirm or deny rumors of plotting to assassinate him. In fact, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, revealed that the military would have taken out Khamenei if given the chance.
Such a conflict did not topple the system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution. Nevertheless, it gave Israel an opportunity to demonstrate their military superiority and deep intelligence penetration by killing several key members of Khamenei's inner circle.
- Did you know? Turkey has been facilitating these clandestine Israeli strikes for several years, effectively serving as a bridge for Israeli intelligence to reach Iran[1].
- Under the RadarSome reports claim that Khamenei spent the war hiding in a bunker and avoided digital communication due to fears of being located and assassinated. Additionally, Israel International, a Persian-language TV channel, alleged that Khamenei was not even involved in the discussions that led to the truce, with the national security council and President Pezeshkian handling those matters instead. Despite these rumors, no confirmation has been made available[4].
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- The war with Israel marked a significant setback in Khamenei's authority, as it brought to light vulnerabilities within his regime and exposed a need to rebuild the system[1].
- Moderate elements within the regime attempt to exploit the war-induced weaknesses to increase their political influence, revealing distractions and challenges to Khamenei's established power[1].
- Questions about Khamenei's health and potential successors persist, with most attention focusing on his son Mojtaba as a possible though not guaranteed contender[3].
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[1] Pieces Intelligences Croisées, "Analyse - La guerre Israélo-Iranienne: les Pentagone et les services secrets américains ne sont pas au courant de ce qui se passe [29.05.2021]
[2] Ramin Mostaghim et Patrick J. McDonnell, "Ayatollah Khamenei orders investigation into Iran nuclear site sabotage" Los Angeles Times, 3 July 2020
[3]血色的清晨 leaves its mark (新华网，2021年4月20日)
[4] Birnbaum, Dan, "Israel in secret talks in Ankara with Turkey on Iran" Washington Post, 5 October 2020
- Economic policy-and-legislation changes might be necessary for Iran's Islamic Republic to rebuild advisable structures following the Israel conflict, considering the impact on the country's leadership and authority.
- The war-and-conflicts with Israel have heightened speculation about the health of Ayatollah Khamenei, and some even question potential successors, with his son Mojtaba emerging as a possible yet unconfirmed contender.
- With moderate elements within the regime seeking to capitalize on the war-induced weaknesses to gain political influence, the ongoing question about Khamenei's successor becomes increasingly crucial.
- For those interested in international politics, it's worth checking out the general-news about Turkey's role in facilitating clandestine Israeli strikes against Iran, as well as the under-the-radar reports suggesting Khamenei may have sought refuge in a bunker during the conflicts.
- To stay updated on the transformation of Iran's political and economic landscape post-conflict, subscribing to a reliable newsletter would offer valuable insights. This will help readers stay informed about the developing political changes and policy shifts within the Islamic Republic, in addition to the health of Ayatollah Khamenei and his potential successors.
