Intensified farm machinery emissions posing challenges to China's net-zero targets
In a recent study published in Nature Food, researchers have highlighted the growing issue of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from agricultural machinery in China. Since 1985, these emissions have increased approximately seven-fold, posing challenges to the country's emissions reduction goals and air quality improvements.
The study reveals that the increasing level of mechanisation dominates the change in emissions, responsible for a 100% increase in emissions over 1985-2000. Unabated continued growth of agricultural mechanisation could compromise China's efforts to achieve its "dual-carbon" goals.
China has committed to peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. With agriculture representing a substantial portion of China’s economy and energy use, addressing emissions from agricultural machinery is crucial to achieving these targets.
The study finds that the total farm equipment CO2 emissions have increased from around 23 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 1985 to nearly 160MtCO2 in 2020, growing annually by a rate of 5.7%. Five provinces in eastern and north-eastern China - Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Anhui - account for more than 40% of agricultural machinery emissions.
The researchers break the emissions down to the province level, finding a large range of agricultural machinery emissions among provinces. Changes in emission intensity uniformly acted to decrease emissions, while "tillage pressure" increased emissions early on in the study period, but decreased emissions since 2000. Population growth was another large driver of increasing farm equipment emissions over the early part of the study period, but it has been less of a factor since 2000.
The study also points out that previous work has shown that using automated equipment, electric tractors, and renewable energy sources can reduce agricultural emissions by 90%. This suggests that with the right strategies and policies, significant reductions in agricultural machinery emissions are possible.
However, agricultural emissions have historically been less prioritized compared to urban and industrial sources, so emissions from agricultural machinery have remained an important but less targeted contributor to China’s overall emissions. The researchers calculate that the average annual growth rate of CO2 emissions from farm equipment is nearly 6% since 1985.
To better inform targeted policy and emission control strategies, improved emission inventories are increasingly differentiating between mobile sources, including agricultural machinery. This is one of the key advances of the new research, offering important insights into potential emissions pathways in the future.
The study also emphasizes that effective mitigation of these emissions will require different strategies in the short- and long-term future, with biofuels and natural gas playing an important role over the coming decade. Renewable energy sources, as well as green hydrogen, have the largest mitigation potential in the longer term.
In conclusion, the increase in agricultural machinery CO2 emissions in China complicates achieving the country's climate targets and sustaining air quality improvements. More focused research and targeted measures are needed to address this issue and support China's climate and air quality goals.
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