Indicators beyond the stock market signaling potential economic downturn: lipstick sales, cardboard boxes, and more unexpected signals.
Here Comes the Funny Side of a Recession
Let's step aside from the traditional, dry economic indicators for a moment - we're about to dive into the quirky, unusual signs that a recession might be around the corner. From your pantry to the disguise in your wardrobe, there are surprising hints that the economy might be taking a dive.
People say economics is dry, complicated, and based on figures and numbers. But have you ever wondered what life's tiny reflections can tell us about our financial health? Informal phenomena—sometimes strange and seemingly unrelated—can offer early indications of an upcoming recession. Some folks with strong opinions on these matters include the former Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan, and cosmetics heir, Leonard Lauder, among others. Let's explore these nine odd signs to watch out for.
1. Stockpiling Snacks - It's Worry Time!
Did you know that when people feel uncertain about the economy, they might start eating fewer snacks? A study from the 2008 recession shows that snacking, fast food, and fresh produce all took a substantial hit. General Mills, makers of Chex Mix and Nature Valley, recently reported a 5% drop in their third-quarter sales. Even pet snacks saw less demand. Jeff Harmening, General Mills' CEO, explained it as a matter of consumer confidence.
2. Pint-Sized Alcohol - Frugal Times Ahead?
The theory goes that when people need to save every penny, they opt for smaller alcohol bottles - like the 50-milliliter varieties you'd find in a hotel mini-bar. Lawson Whiting, CEO of a beverage company, explains, "The small bottles are performing so well due to cyclical inflation and a consumer who is being more frugal."
3. The Lipstick Revolution - Crisis, Cash, Cosmetics
Leonard Lauder, billionaire heir of Estée Lauder, first coined this concept in 2001. During the U.S. recession, he noticed an uptick in lipstick sales despite the overall economic downturn. The idea is simple: When people can't afford big purchases, they treat themselves to small luxuries like lipstick. Major cosmetics brands reported sales growth in 2008, too.
But, surprise, surprise—it's not always reliable. Lipstick sales can sometimes go up during good economic times and even fall during bad ones.
4. A Man's Best Friend - Or Worst Nightmare?
Buying new underwear isn't exactly a fun or frequent purchase. And guess what? Men tend to put it off during economic downturns. Thus, underwear sales for men dropped during the 2008/09 recession. But wait, there's more! Sales increased between 2010 and 2015 during the recovery. In 2020, in pandemic-related uncertainty, sales dropped...only to recover in 2021.
5. Hemline Trends - A Sartorial Predictor?
In the 1920s, the hemline index emerged. The theory holds that in booming times, hemlines on women's skirts get shorter, and in crises, they get longer. History seems to back this up: in the 1960s, the miniskirt made its debut during a time of strong growth. Then, in the 1970s, during the oil crisis, hemlines grew long again. More recently, the micro-mini skirt trend was popular at the beginning of 2022, but with rising inflation and recession fears, the knee-length maxi skirt made a comeback. Is it all coincidence, or is there more to this tale? You decide!
6. Cardboard Conundrum - When the Boxes Vanish
Cardboard boxes are vital for retail, whether brick-and-mortar or online shopping. Less demand can indicate decreased consumer spending, which can hint at an approaching recession. During the financial crisis of 2009, cardboard deliveries plummeted, and the trend repeated at the beginning of 2023.
7. Diaper Dilemma - Belts Get Tightened at the Expense of the Little Ones
Diapers are pricey, typically ranging from $500 to $900 a year, depending on the brand. When times get tough, parents might change diapers less often, leading to more cases of diaper rash. In 2011, sales of diaper rash creams rose by 8%, while diaper sales were stagnant or fell at the same time. But remember, other factors could contribute to this trend.
8. Champagne Crisis - Less Sparkle, More Struggle?
Champagne might seem like a luxury that would be the first to go in tough economic times. In 2008, before the peak of the financial crisis, more than 23 million bottles were sold in the US. A year later, it dropped to 12.5 million. During 2020, the champagne industry reported a 18% drop. But in the following year, as travel and celebrations returned, sales soared to a record high of $5.7 billion.
9. The Stripper Index - Cuts in the Nightlife
When people give less in tips, whether in strip clubs or restaurants, it might indicate shrinking discretionary spending. Financial advisor Aaliyah Kissick says, "Tips in strip clubs are a microcosm for the elasticity of consumption." Economist Peter C. Earle adds, "A decrease in tips indicates cuts in voluntary spending—whether due to inflation, job loss, or future anxiety."
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This article was published on March 28, 2025, and last updated.
What could relatively lower sales of snacks, pet snacks, and miniature alcohol bottles indicate about consumer confidence and the economy?
Could a surge in sales of lipstick and other small luxury items during a recession reflect people's desire to indulge in small treats during tough times, despite financial hardship?
