Score One for the Budget Big Loss: Trump's Tax Plan Estimated to Boost U.S. Debt by Trillions
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Research: Trump's Tax Reform Potentially Pushing U.S. Debt Levels to Sky-High Trillions - Increased US debt potential due to Trump's proposed tax legislation
In a turn of events that'll leave your wallet gasping, the tax and spending bill from the White House big cheese, President Donald Trump, is set to escalate the U.S. budget deficit by a whopping $2.8 trillion over a decade, as per a new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released on Tuesday (local time). As if that ain't enough, the positive economic impacts, which the CBO had previously estimated would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt without these effects, have been thrown into the mix, making the total impact a staggering $3 trillion when interest costs are included.
The Trump-Train Struggles in Congress
This new estimate contradicts the rosy claims from Trump's Republicans that this comprehensive package would give the U.S. economy such a jolt, it'd reduce the national debt through increased revenues. Senate Majority Leader John Thune went as far as saying, "We believe it will lead to a stronger and more prosperous America."
The House of Representatives approved the bill, christened the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," in May. The Senate Republicans are currently in deep debate over a revised version. For the bill to become law, both chambers of Congress must swear their allegiance to a common version, after which it can be sent to Trump for the big ol' presidential stamp of approval.
The current draft extends the colossal tax cuts that Trump introduced during his first term, which are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. To offset this, there are proposed drastic cuts to the Medicaid healthcare program, which primarily caters to low-income and elderly Americans.
- Tax Bill
- Donald Trump
- USA
Behind the Curtains: A Deeper Dive
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that enacting Donald Trump's proposed tax and spending legislation, known as H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, would increase the federal budget deficits by approximately $2.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, excluding macroeconomic or debt-service effects[3][4]. This projection reflects the House-passed version of the bill as of May 2025 and includes the fact that some provisions would expire during that timeframe unless made permanent. If 16 tax provisions that are set to sunset in 2028 or 2029 were permanently enacted, the primary deficits would increase by an additional $1.4 trillion over the same period[3]. Some partisan sources claim the bill would reduce the deficit by over $1 trillion in the next decade, citing tariff revenues and spending cuts; however, these claims aren't in alignment with the nonpartisan CBO's official budget impact estimates, which show a significant deficit increase[2]. In summary, according to the authoritative and nonpartisan CBO analysis, Trump's proposed tax and spending bill would significantly increase the U.S. budget deficit, adding roughly $2.4 trillion in deficits over the next ten years after enactment[3][4].
- The tax law proposed by Donald Trump, known as H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is currently under debate in the Senate Republicans after the House of Representatives approved it in May.
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if this bill is enacted, it would increase the federal budget deficits by approximately $2.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, excluding macroeconomic or debt-service effects.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and other Trump's Republicans, claimed that this tax and spending bill would reduce the national debt through increased revenues. However, the nonpartisan CBO's official budget impact estimates show a significant deficit increase, contradicting these rosy claims.
