Increased interest in one-bedroom apartments in newly built properties in Tomsk saw a 7% rise
In the first half of 2025, the primary residential real estate market in Tomsk has shown growth, particularly in the demand for one-bedroom apartments in new buildings, which increased by 7%. However, this growth is not directly related to the overall growth of the market.
Despite this positive trend, the market is facing several challenges that are expected to persist in the coming months. According to Dmitry Alekseev, Managing Director of Avito Real Estate, the market is expected to continue adjusting.
Slowing consumer demand and hiring weakness in real-estate, commerce, and leisure sectors are reducing buyer activity and new household formation, putting pressure on primary sales volumes and potentially lengthening marketing periods for new projects. Higher cost of living and utility tariff increases are also reducing disposable incomes and increasing monthly carrying costs for buyers, weakening affordability for mortgage or purchase of new apartments.
The supply of one-bedroom apartments in Tomsk's new buildings has increased by 4%, while the supply of studios has increased by 33%. However, these increases in supply are not without challenges. Construction and materials forecasts show declines in 2025, which can disrupt supply chains for construction materials and increase costs for developers, delaying deliveries of primary-market units. Labour shortages are also a significant issue, with recruitment reports noting acute shortages in skilled trades and construction roles in 2025, which raises wage costs for builders and can slow construction timelines.
The selection of apartments has significantly expanded in Tomsk's new buildings, offering buyers more choices. However, price pressure is mixed. Weaker demand and longer sales periods put downward pressure on developers’ effective prices or promote more incentives, while cost inflation (materials, utilities, wages) pushes developers to defend nominal prices—the net effect is likely slower nominal price growth or modest declines in real terms in many projects in 2025.
The percentage of transactions in new buildings made using mortgages has decreased, now at 57%, compared to last year's 74%. This suggests that buyers are increasingly turning to cash purchases due to affordability issues.
In terms of the demand for three-bedroom apartments in new buildings, it has increased by 5%. This trend, along with the growth in demand for one-bedroom apartments, indicates a preference for smaller, more affordable units.
Tomsk's unique position as a regional university and tech/industrial centre means that student and public-sector related housing demand can cushion parts of the market. If local IT or public investment projects expand, they may sustain pockets of demand for new housing, especially mid-range units.
Key factors to monitor for H2 2025 include local unemployment and hiring in construction, IT, and public sectors, mortgage availability and rates, developer presale activity and new project launches, material and input price movements, and government measures such as regional housing support, tariff/utility policy changes, or infrastructure spending.
In conclusion, while the primary residential real estate market in Tomsk has shown growth in certain sectors, it is facing significant challenges that are expected to persist in the coming months. Buyers are turning to smaller, more affordable units, and the market is seeing more cash purchases due to affordability issues. It is crucial to monitor key factors such as employment, mortgage availability, and government measures to understand the market's direction in the second half of 2025.
In the second half of 2025, the finance sector, especially mortgage availability and rates, may significantly impact the housing market in Tomsk, as they could influence buyers' purchasing power and affordability. Moreover, investing in real estate, particularly new projects, could face challenges due to the increasing cost of living, utility tariff increases, and labor shortages in the construction sector, which might slow construction timelines and increase development costs.
