In 2025, it's predicted that India could contribute around a quarter of the worldwide expansion in oil demand.
In 2025, it's predicted that India could contribute around a quarter of the worldwide expansion in oil demand.
In the quest for insights into global crude oil demand expansion in 2025, attention is turning towards India, as Chinese consumption patterns seem to mislead rather than indicate.
In 2024, India emerged as a significant player in crude oil consumption, causing a rift between the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries regarding their respective estimates for global demand increase projections. The former presented figures less than 1 million barrels per day, while the latter eventually suggested figures approaching 2 million bpd.
Regardless of the final 2024 data, India is expected to contribute significantly to overall demand growth.
As per the Energy Information Administration, the statistical division of the U.S. Department of Energy, India is poised to surpass China by accounting for approximately one-fourth of global oil demand growth in 2025.
This revelation might be intriguing, though not entirely unexpected given China's economic slowdown and dynamic market shift, coupled with India's robust economic growth.
From 1998 to 2023, China recorded higher crude oil consumption than India in almost every year. Moreover, China's consumption growth regularly outperformed that of other nations during this period.
However, by 2025, India may account for 25% of worldwide oil consumption growth, according to a recent EIA notice, contrasting its projected 2025 global demand increase figure of 1.3 million bpd.
The EIA anticipates a 330,000 bpd increase in India's liquid fuel consumption in 2025 (from 220,000 bpd in 2024). This growth rate leads all projected countries in the EIA's forecast for both years. China's liquid fuel consumption growth is projected to be 90,000 bpd in 2024, before growing to 250,000 bpd in 2025.
Electric vehicle growth, increasing use of liquefied natural gas for goods transportation, a shrinking population, and decelerating economic growth have constrained China's transportation fuel consumption growth, the EIA observed. Nigeria is projected to see most of China's growth in oil consumption, mainly through increased oil usage in petrochemical manufacturing. Despite India's demand growth surpassing China's in terms of percentage and volume in the EIA's forecast, China still consumes significantly more oil.
In 2023, India's total consumption of liquid fuels stood at 5.3 million bpd, while China consumed more than triple that amount at 16.4 million bpd, according to the EIA's December STEO estimates.
Flaunting Global Crude Market Ambitions
Industry predictions strengthen the notion that India may undeniably spearhead broader crude oil market aspirations.
At an energy conference in Houston, India's petroleum and natural gas minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, echoed the EIA's forecast regarding India's role in demand growth.
"India's economy will account for 25% of the ensuing near-term and medium-term global increase in demand over the coming years. We are a significant importer, and we find no shortage of crude globally," Puri stated at the Gastech 2024 conference in Houston.
In light of India's pivotal position in global crude oil demand growth, given its role as the major driver, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government expanded India's supplier network from 27 to 39 countries in 2024, potentially attracting interest from additional countries, contingent on crude supply supply chain logistics.
The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had differing views on India's projected oil demand increase in 2024, with the former suggesting less than 1 million barrels per day and the latter approaching 2 million bpd.
India is projected to contribute significantly to the overall demand growth and could account for approximately one-quarter of global oil demand growth in 2025, as per the Energy Information Administration.
Hardeep Singh Puri, India's petroleum and natural gas minister, echoed the EIA's forecast at the Gastech 2024 conference in Houston, stating that India's economy will account for 25% of the ensuing near-term and medium-term global increase in demand for oil.
In response to its pivotal role in global crude oil demand growth, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government expanded India's supplier network from 27 to 39 countries in 2024, potentially attracting interest from additional countries based on crude supply chain logistics.
According to the Energy Information Administration, India's oil demand is expected to see a 330,000 bpd increase in 2025, making it the country with the highest projected growth rate in liquid fuel consumption for both years.