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BASF Stock: Mixed Performance and Cautious Outlook
BASF, the German multinational chemical company, has seen a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks, with its stock initially experiencing a strong price increase, surpassing the previous 3-month high. However, this upward trend was later determined to be a false breakout, causing the stock to go down.
The recent pullbacks in BASF stock haven't caused significant damage from a chart perspective, according to analysts. If the support level of 41.50 euros isn't broken, there's a possibility of another breakout attempt for BASF stock. If successful, the 45.70 euro mark could be surpassed, clearing the path upward for now.
However, the company's financial performance has been less encouraging. BASF reported a significant decline in net income and earnings per share for the first half of 2025, with Q2 net income down 81.6% year-over-year and EBITDA before special items dropping 9.4%. The company's half-year report indicates that expectations for global GDP growth, industrial production, and chemical production have all been adjusted lower, and overall chemical market demand is projected to be weaker in the second half of 2025.
As a result, BASF revised its full-year EBITDA guidance downward from €8.0-8.4 billion to €7.3-7.7 billion, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Financial metrics such as BASF’s return on equity (ROE) are quite low (around 1.5%), signaling reduced profitability and potentially limited shareholder returns in the near term.
Despite these challenges, there are some bright spots. The performance of the Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies divisions of BASF has been praised by analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte of Deutsche Bank. These divisions have outperformed expectations, providing a glimmer of hope for the company's future.
Investors should keep a close eye on BASF stock, as the next significant resistance level is at 53.00 euros. Deutsche Bank sees the fair value of BASF shares around 52.00 euros, reaffirming its buy recommendation. However, the stop-loss for BASF shares in a portfolio is set at 31.00 euros, according to DER AKTIONÄR, reflecting the potential volatility in the stock price.
The CEO and majority shareholder of the publisher Börsenmedien AG, Mr. Bernd Förtsch, holds positions in BASF that could benefit from potential price developments. DER AKTIONÄR maintains a positive long-term outlook on the dividend stock BASF.
In conclusion, while BASF's financial performance has been affected by weaker-than-expected earnings and a lowered 2025 outlook, the company's stock remains a subject of interest for investors. The potential for another breakout attempt, coupled with the positive performance of certain divisions, suggests that there may be opportunities for investors willing to take a calculated risk. However, the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, coupled with the potential volatility in the stock price, warrant careful consideration before making investment decisions.
Investors might be interested in learning more about the potential for another breakout attempt for BASF stock, given the relatively stable chart perspective and the positive performance of specific divisions such as Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies. However, the company's financial performance has been less encouraging, with significant declines in net income and EBITDA, leading to a downward revision of full-year EBITDA guidance.
