Grains market closes on Tuesday with wheat prices falling below the $5 mark.
US and EU Wheat Futures Show Moderate Activity Amid Diverse Market Dynamics
As of late August 2025, wheat futures prices in the US and EU markets exhibit a mix of moderate activity, influenced by export demand, weather conditions, and supply-demand fundamentals.
US Market
In the United States, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have recently experienced modest gains, with the December contract hovering around $5.74 per bushel. Steady export demand has been instrumental in helping stabilize prices, despite global ample supplies. However, more recent trading sessions have shown price declines, with contracts falling 7 to 8 cents due to profit-taking or short-term market corrections while awaiting export sales data.
Earlier in August, US spring wheat surged towards a two-year peak due to weather-related worries impacting key growing regions, increasing market volatility and upward pressure on prices. As of now, conditions for US wheat are listed at 50% good/excellent, with a 1% improvement. The US winter wheat harvest is 94% complete, ahead of the normal pace by 1%.
EU Market
In the European Union, price trends are somewhat more stable but feature slight increases due to regional consumption and trade dynamics. For example, wheat prices in Germany and the UK showed steady or slightly strengthened prices in Q2 2025, influenced by food industry demand and supply conditions, including distribution challenges.
Key Factors Influencing Wheat Futures Prices
- Export Demand: Steady US export shipments support wheat futures prices, while weekly export sales reports remain closely watched indicators.
- Weather Conditions: Adverse weather and crop stress in key US growing areas, including spring wheat regions, create upward price pressure; similarly, weather variations globally maintain uncertainty.
- Supply Fundamentals: The global wheat supply outlook, such as the recently estimated slightly lower Ukrainian crop and Canadian production estimates, influences market sentiment and price expectations.
- Domestic Consumption and Trade: European market prices reflect regional food industry demand and import needs, as well as logistical/distribution factors.
- Price Forecasts: USDA forecasts predict a 7.9% decrease in US farm-level wheat prices in 2025 compared to previous years, indicating longer-term downward pressure despite short-term fluctuations.
Current Trends
The current trend shows wheat futures in the US with some volatility but supported by export demand and weather concerns, while EU prices are relatively stable with slight upward adjustments due to regional demand factors. The overall price environment remains sensitive to export data releases, weather impacts, and crop production estimates.
In particular, both September and winter wheat contracts closed below the $5 mark. CBT soft red wheat futures fell 3 to 4 1/4 cents, while KC HRW futures decreased 6 to 7 cents. Dec 25 KCBT Hard Red Winter wheat futures closed at $5.21 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
The European Commission estimates the EU soft wheat exports at 1.78 MMT from July 1 to August 17, which is less than half of the exports in the same period last year. Meanwhile, the spring wheat harvest is 36% complete, behind the 5-year average.
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] (Sources for further information)
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