Gold Set to Break Records in Q3 2025?
In August 2025, gold futures have reached unprecedented highs, surpassing the $3,400 per ounce mark [1][2][3]. This remarkable milestone comes amidst a bullish trend for the precious metal, with the GDX ETF, a popular gold mining stock, also hitting record highs.
However, a recent slight pullback in gold futures suggests a period of technical consolidation or potential short-term downward pressure [1]. Despite this, analysts predict that gold will remain bullish throughout the second half of 2025.
Central Bank Buying and Investor Interest Fuel Gold Demand
One of the primary drivers for the bullish outlook is increased central bank acquisitions and investor interest. Central banks have accumulated over 1,000 metric tons of gold in each of the last three years [5]. This growing demand, coupled with anticipation of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which typically weaken the dollar and favour gold prices [2], bodes well for the precious metal.
Gold's Strong Momentum Continues
Gold has shown a roughly 33% price increase over the past year, demonstrating strong long-term momentum that analysts expect to continue [4]. Market models forecast gold prices around $3,527 per ounce twelve months ahead, indicating an expected continued uptrend in 2025’s second half [4].
Currency Dynamics and Safe-Haven Demand Boost Gold Prices
The weakening U.S. dollar supports higher gold prices [6]. In addition, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical or economic uncertainty further boosts gold prices. The mixed but fundamentally supportive environment shapes market consensus for continued gold strength through the second half of 2025.
Other Factors Affecting Gold Prices
The risk of a correction in gold prices increases with each new high since Q3 2023 [7]. However, this is seen as temporary technical adjustment rather than a reversal [1]. The U.S. tariff on one-kilogram and hundred-ounce gold bars has caused unprecedented disruption across precious metals markets and is viewed as another bullish factor for gold and other leading precious metals [8].
The ETF product GDXD, a triple-leveraged bearish gold ETF, is suitable for short-term bearish gold risk positions, trading over 11.5 million shares daily [9]. The leading gold ETF product, GLD, has $312.58 per share, over $101.423 billion in assets under management, and trades an average of over 9.20 million shares daily [5][6].
In conclusion, while short-term fluctuations and resistance levels may cause some volatility, the dominant factors—central bank buying, Fed policy expectations, and robust investor demand—are projected to keep gold prices on a bullish trajectory in late 2025 [2][4].
References
- Gold Futures Experience Slight Pullback
- Gold Prices Remain Bullish Despite Recent Pullback
- Gold Futures Reach New All-Time Highs
- Market Models Forecast Gold Prices Around $3,527/oz in 2025’s Second Half
- GLD: The Leading Gold ETF Product
- A Weakening U.S. Dollar Supports Higher Gold Prices
- Risk of Gold Correction Increases with Each New High
- U.S. Tariff on Gold Bars Causes Precious Metals Market Disruption
- GDXD: A Triple-Leveraged Bearish Gold ETF
- given the recent slight pullback in gold futures, investors are still interested in financing the purchasing of commodity prices like gold due to the anticipated continued bullish trend throughout the second half of 2025.
- The increase in central bank buying and strong investor interest in gold, coupled with a weak US dollar and safe-haven demand, make investing in commodity prices such as gold an attractive proposition for finance specialists.
