Fossil fuel companies linked to deadly heatwaves for the first time on record
In a groundbreaking development, a comprehensive study published in Nature has directly linked the emissions of the world's largest fossil fuel companies to more than 50 extreme heatwaves that would have otherwise been practically impossible. This study represents a significant step forward in the legal realm, as the question is no longer if these companies are responsible, but how and when they will be held accountable for their role in climate disasters.
The research, which analysed 213 heatwaves recorded between 2000 and 2023 on all continents, found that half of the increase in the intensity of heatwaves is directly attributable to the emissions of 180 'carbon majors', a group that includes the world's largest fossil fuel companies. Notably, the emissions of companies like ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco made at least 51 heatwaves 10,000 times more likely than they would have been in a stable climate.
The study also revealed that the average intensity of heatwaves increased from 1.4°C in the 2000s to 2.2°C between 2020 and 2023. The scorching heat that struck the northwest Pacific in 2021 was at least 3°C more intense due to global warming, highlighting the devastating impact of these fossil fuel emissions.
As heatwaves are the deadliest form of climate disaster, responsible for half a million deaths worldwide each year, this link between fossil fuel emissions and extreme heat events is particularly concerning. Sonia Seneviratne from the University of Zurich believes that being able to quantify how much each company has contributed can be invaluable in establishing responsibility and compensation.
However, the path to real accountability for fossil fuel companies is still fraught with legal and evidentiary hurdles, according to Michael Gerrard and Jessica Wentz of the Sabin Center at Columbia University. No information is currently available about which courts are ready to hear lawsuits against the largest fossil fuel companies for causing deadly heatwaves.
The International Court of Justice has issued a warning that states and companies that do not avoid climate damages could be forced to pay compensations. In May, a German court set a precedent by recognising the possible direct responsibility of fossil fuel companies for climate damages. This legal precedent could pave the way for future lawsuits against large fossil fuel companies due to the clear causal link between their emissions and specific heatwaves.
Sonia Seneviratne's assertion that a new horizon of climate justice is opening rings true, as the study published in Nature has shifted the focus from 'diffuse contributions' to climate change to specific fossil fuel companies that made climate catastrophes possible. Companies at the bottom of the list had a significant impact, generating up to 16 additional heatwaves each.
As every ton of carbon emitted today multiplies tomorrow's tragedies, the legal precedent for holding fossil fuel companies accountable for climate damages is closer than ever. The real impacts of heatwaves could be much greater, as Africa and South America, with data gaps and incomplete records, are barely represented. Nevertheless, this study marks a significant step towards ensuring that those responsible for climate disasters are held accountable for their actions.
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