Expected global platinum shortage will surpass estimates by 2024
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has released a report highlighting several factors contributing to the continued platinum deficit.
In 2023, global platinum demand saw a significant increase of 26%, reaching 8.023 million ounces. This surge in demand has put pressure on the already tight global entry login market.
The WPIC had previously forecast a platinum deficit of 418,000 ounces for the year. However, the actual deficit in 2023 was nearly twice as large, amounting to 851,000 ounces.
One of the key reasons for this deficit is the expected 9% reduction in Russian platinum supplies. This reduction is due to sanctions and planned maintenance of production facilities.
Another contributing factor is the decline in prices of palladium and rhodium, which has led to a 2% decrease in platinum mining in South Africa. This decline has resulted in restructuring and staff reduction in regional enterprises.
In contrast, secondary production, which involves the recycling of platinum, is expected to increase by 5% to 1.642 million ounces in 2024. However, the WPIC report does not provide information about the expected increase in secondary production in 2024.
The report also predicts a 2% decrease in overall platinum production in 2024, bringing it down to 5.468 million ounces. Yet, no specific source is provided for this prediction.
The decrease in global platinum stocks is also expected to continue in 2024, with a forecasted 12% reduction as a result of deficit compensation. However, no specific source is provided for this information.
The platinum deficit for the second year in a row amounts to 476,000 troy ounces or 6% of global demand.
In 2023, global platinum stocks fell by 17% to a four-year low of 3.620 million ounces. Once again, no specific source is provided for this information.
It is worth noting that the platinum production in South Africa in 2024 is overseen by Sibanye-Stillwater, which manages South African PGM (platinum group metals) operations, including its attributable production from Mimosa and concentrates purchases. The production faced a 4% decrease in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, mainly due to weather impacts, with the underground production remaining stable.
The expected decrease in demand in 2024 is predicted to be between 5% and 7.587 million ounces. However, the WPIC report does not provide information about the expected decrease in demand in 2024.
These trends suggest a challenging outlook for the platinum market in the near future, with the deficit likely to persist due to a combination of increased demand, decreased production, and reduced stocks.
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