European migration of Ukrainians intensifies labor market strife and potentially leads to GDP decline
In the aftermath of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a significant number of Ukrainians have integrated into the European Union's labor market, contributing to key sectors and helping to offset worker shortages. As the country rebuilds and seeks to attract its citizens back home, a comprehensive strategy is being developed to encourage migration return.
Reconstruction and security are key factors in this effort. The rapid rebuilding of critical infrastructure like power grids and housing significantly improves living conditions and stimulates economic recovery, making Ukraine more attractive for returnees. Aid directed to homeowners is an important tool to encourage return migration [1].
Security conditions also play a crucial role in the scale and timing of return migration. Many Ukrainians plan to stay in their host countries if hostilities continue, but approximately 71% of surveyed Ukrainians intend to return to Ukraine if the active phase of the war ends [3].
The EU has extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2027, providing access to work and benefits. However, as higher-wage employment opportunities remain available in countries like Germany and Poland, the opportunity cost of returning to Ukraine rises, potentially reducing return rates [1][3].
Some Ukrainians seek to relocate within the EU to countries offering better social assistance or living conditions, affecting the migration dynamics but not necessarily encouraging immediate returns to Ukraine [5].
International cooperation is essential in managing and influencing migrant flows, including encouraging returns when conditions improve. Lessons from migration management in other contexts suggest that combining lawful pathways for migrants with credible enforcement and bilateral agreements may help manage and influence migrant flows [2].
A comprehensive approach to retaining and returning citizens may include cooperation with international organizations, state grants, and reform of the system for recognizing diplomas and qualifications obtained in Ukraine abroad. The creation of attractive conditions for the return of Ukrainians includes affordable housing, job creation, professional retraining programs, tax and regulatory incentives for small and medium-sized businesses [4].
However, over 43% of those who left Ukraine in recent times now plan to stay abroad permanently [6]. The reduction in the working-age population due to Ukrainian migration affects the stabilization of the domestic labor market in Ukraine. The departure of active, mobile, and educated citizens from Ukraine weakens the country's human potential and reduces its development prospects in the medium term [7].
The discussion of the return of Ukrainians has occurred at the level of the central banks of Ukraine and Poland, indicating its priority in economic strategy [8]. As Ukrainians in the EU often take low-skilled jobs due to language barriers and unrecognized diplomas, the loss of skilled labor due to Ukrainian migration to the EU could lead to a 7.8% annual decrease in Ukraine's GDP [9].
In summary, the current strategies combine improving on-the-ground conditions in Ukraine (security and reconstruction), coordinated migration policies in host countries, extended temporary protection schemes, and economic incentives to encourage migrants to return and help Ukraine's economic recovery [1][3][5]. The future of Ukraine's economic growth is closely tied to the successful implementation of these strategies and the return of its skilled workforce.
References:
- Migration Policy Institute
- International Organization for Migration
- UNHCR
- World Bank
- EU Commission
- Pew Research Center
- Ukrainian Central Bank
- Polish Central Bank
- IMF
- The migration of Ukrainians to key sectors within the European Union's labor market, along with the rebuilding of critical infrastructure, contributes to business recovery and attracts return migrants.
- Security conditions following the war-and-conflicts play a significant role in the scale and timing of return migration, as many Ukrainians plan to return if the active phase of the war ends.
- The EU's extended temporary protection for Ukrainian migrants provides access to work and benefits, yet higher-wage opportunities in countries like Germany and Poland make it economically less appealing to return to Ukraine.
- International cooperation, lawful pathways for migrants, and attracting conditions for return, such as affordable housing, job creation, and professional retraining, are all part of a comprehensive approach to encourage return migration and support Ukraine's general news and political efforts toward economic growth.
