Estimated Japanese 1-Year Rice Consumption from Now till June Next Year Is Projected to Reach a Maximum of 7.1 Million Tons
The Ministry of Agriculture in Japan has revised its staple rice demand projections for the year through June 2026. The Research and Statistics Department, a subgroup within the ministry, has predicted that the demand for staple rice will be between 6.97 million and 7.11 million tons. This is an increase from the initial estimate of 6.69 million tons for 2024 and surpasses the forecasted 2025 production of between 7.28 million and 7.45 million tons.
The previous projections were based on assumptions of a shrinking population and decreasing rice consumption. However, the panel has now recognised the need to consider additional factors such as increased demand from foreign tourists and declining yields of polished rice due to rising heat stress. The new calculation method is intended to ensure that the estimates reflect a wider range of factors affecting staple rice demand.
Notably, the panel's estimate for the year through June 2026 does not include any adjustments for potential changes in consumer behaviour or preferences, impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, or other unforeseen events. The ministry plans to fine-tune the demand projection by surveying the amount of rice distributed as a thank-you gift under the 'hometown tax' donation program.
Meanwhile, the private sector's rice inventory is expected to grow up to 1.5-fold year on year to 2.29 million tons as of June 31 next year. This increase in inventory is likely to provide a buffer against any potential shortages or fluctuations in demand.
The need for a new formula was due to a significant difference between the initial estimate and the actual demand from the previous year. The ministry's food council subgroup made this estimate two months later than scheduled to ensure the accuracy of the projections using the new formula.
In conclusion, the revised projections for staple rice demand in Japan through June 2026 take into account a broader range of factors, aiming to provide a more accurate reflection of the market conditions. The ministry's efforts to adjust its forecasting methods and survey the rice market will help maintain a stable supply of rice for the Japanese population and visitors alike.
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