Escalating cost for pre-owned diesel vehicles due to scarcity of new car inventory
In the ever-evolving automotive market, diesel models are experiencing a unique mix of fortunes. According to Cap HPI, a leading vehicle valuation expert, some diesel cars are seeing increased values, while others are depreciating at higher rates than expected.
The first half of 2025 has witnessed a 11.3% decrease in the number of newly registered diesel cars compared to 2024. This decline in new car volumes, coupled with reduced production, has created supply constraints for certain diesel models, making them more scarce and sought after. As a result, some desirable used diesel models have experienced price hikes.
On the flip side, diesel models that are less favoured due to shifting buyer preferences, tighter environmental regulations, and falling overall demand are depreciating at accelerated rates. For instance, the Range Rover Evoque and the Ssangyong Korando 2.2D are among the models that have seen significant depreciation, with the Evoque losing 12.7% of its value and the Korando 2.2D losing 24.5%.
Dylan Setterfield, head of forecast strategy at Cap HPI, attributes this divergence in diesel vehicle values to a combination of supply shortages for select models leading to price hikes, and broader consumer and regulatory pressure reducing demand for traditional diesels, which accelerates depreciation in less favoured diesel cars.
While overall used car prices are falling back toward historic norms in 2025 after pandemic-related surges, price behavior varies by segment and fuel type. High-demand, lower-supply segments see values hold or rise, while others slide. For example, the value of a three-year-old Ford Mondeo has increased by 6.5%, and a three-year-old Honda HR-V with 60,000 miles is worth 11.3% more today than it was at the same point last year.
Interestingly, the demand for petrol, hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles is rising, while diesel's demand is decreasing, leading to increased depreciation for most diesel models. Despite this, both consumers and dealers still show demand for diesel in the used market.
The decline in new diesel car registrations can be traced back to 2017. Audi, BMW, and JLR (specifically the Defender) are among the few car manufacturers still producing diesel models. However, the overall appeal of diesel powertrains in the new car market is fading.
In conclusion, the value trends of diesel cars in 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including supply constraints, market demand shifts, regional preferences, and wider used car price trends. As the market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these trends unfold in the coming years.
Financing options for used automotive diesel models might require closer scrutiny due to their varying values, with some experiencing price increases while others depreciate at faster rates. The transportation industry, particularly the automotive sector, is witnessing a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards alternative fuels like petrol, hybrid, and electric vehicles, consequently exerting pressure on diesel-powered models.
