Effect of American tariffs: Florence, Milan, and Trieste provinces hit hardest
The impact of US tariffs on Italian provinces in the first quarter of 2025 has been severe, with significant relative losses in foreign sales, especially in Tuscany and its provinces like Florence.
Florence: The Hardest Hit
Florence, one of Italy's most iconic cities, is the most affected Italian province by the US tariffs. Exports to the US accounted for 26.9% of all foreign sales in Q1 2025, much higher than the national average. Due to a 30% US tariff on goods, Florence's exports suffered an estimated loss of €580 million in just three months, the largest among all Italian provinces.
The structure of Florence’s economy, dominated by small and medium enterprises in fashion, leather, jewelry, precision mechanics, and increasingly food and wine exports, makes it highly vulnerable to US tariffs.
Tuscany: Major Risks and Job Losses
At the broader regional level, Tuscany faces major risks, including 15,000 to 18,000 jobs endangered due to these US tariffs. The tariffs cover key Tuscan sectors like wine, leather goods, design manufacturing, and certified agri-food.
In total, Italy exports over €63 billion to the US, with more than €30 billion subject to tariffs. The direct loss is estimated up to €9 billion nationwide, with total impact including indirect effects between €18 and €22 billion over 2025-26.
For Tuscany alone, projections initially underestimated losses; Florence accounts for more than half of the region’s impact in just one quarter, suggesting larger total losses than earlier expected for the entire region.
Other Provinces Affected
Other provinces like Trieste, L'Aquila, Frosinone, Bologna, Caltanissetta, Crotone, Oristano, Cosenza, and Viterbo have also experienced impacts, although to a lesser extent than Florence and Tuscany. With a 30% tariff, the potential loss in the first quarter of 2025 was less than a million euros each for these provinces.
However, even with a 10% tariff, these provinces would still face significant losses. For instance, the potential loss for Trieste, L'Aquila, and Frosinone would have been a third of the original estimate with a 10% tariff.
Recent Trump-EU trade deals have reduced some tariffs, such as lowering wine tariffs from 30% to 15%, but Tuscany still faces substantial export challenges, as it accounts for 16% of Italy's exports to the US, ranking third after Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna.
In summary, the US tariffs have caused immediate and substantial export losses in Italian provinces, with Florence and Tuscany bearing the greatest relative economic and employment consequences in the first quarter of 2025, amounting to hundreds of millions of euros in lost sales and tens of thousands of threatened jobs.
- The financial impact on Florence is significant, as exports to the US accounted for a large portion of its foreign sales, with an estimated loss of €580 million due to US tariffs.
- Tuscany faces major financial risks, with an estimated 15,000 to 18,000 jobs endangered due to the fallout from US tariffs on key Tuscan sectors like wine, leather goods, design manufacturing, and certified agri-food.
