Discussions Concealed Between Turkey and Syria Over Sea Border Demarcation - Possible Effects on Cyprus
The Eastern Mediterranean is bracing for a potential shift in its geopolitical balance, as Turkey and Syria engage in secret negotiations to delineate their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). These talks, which could reshape the region's maritime order, have significant implications for Cyprus, a key player in the Eastern Mediterranean's complex web of maritime boundaries.
## Implications for Cyprus
1. **Tensions with NATO and EU**: Cyprus may face increased tension with NATO and EU member states, as Turkey's engagement in these negotiations could be perceived as a challenge to the existing maritime order. This could impact Cyprus's relations with these organizations and regional stability.
2. **Maritime Boundaries and Energy Resources**: The definition of EEZ boundaries is crucial for access to underwater energy resources, such as natural gas. An agreement between Turkey and Syria that disregards Cyprus's claims could limit Cyprus's access to potential energy resources, especially if the agreement encroaches on areas considered by Cyprus as part of its EEZ.
3. **Turkish Cypriot Claims**: Turkey has emphasized its commitment to defending the rights and interests of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is recognized only by Ankara. This means that any maritime agreement could potentially include concessions favorable to the TRNC, further complicating the already complex situation in Cyprus.
4. **Regional Stability**: The talks could lead to increased competition for resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially destabilizing the region. Cyprus would need to navigate these dynamics carefully to protect its interests.
## Potential Consequences
- **Increased Diplomatic Pressure**: Cyprus might face increased diplomatic pressure from Turkey to accept maritime boundaries that favor Turkey's interests and those of the TRNC. - **Economic Impact**: Any agreement that limits Cyprus's access to energy resources could have significant economic implications for the country. - **International Relations**: The talks could strain relations with other regional actors, necessitating careful diplomacy by Cyprus to maintain its position in the region.
The 2019 maritime agreement between Turkey and Libya serves as a precedent for the potential EEZ agreement with Syria. This agreement, which was declared invalid and contrary to international law by Brussels, has already sparked strong objections from Greece and the European Union. The EU's objections suggest potential opposition to a potential EEZ agreement between Turkey and Syria.
The Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, has confirmed the negotiations, marking the first formal acknowledgment that talks are underway. A successful EEZ arrangement with Syria could bolster Turkey's legal positions in the region and open new areas for offshore exploration. However, it could also deepen the rift with its NATO allies and EU partners, further complicating the already complex situation in the Eastern Mediterranean.
[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/17/turkey-syria-discuss-maritime-boundaries-in-secret-talks [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-syria-hold-secret-talks-delimit-exclusive-economic-zones-2021-06-17/ [3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/turkey-syria-talks-exclusive-economic-zones-eastern-mediterranean.html
- The potential shift in the Eastern Mediterranean's geopolitical balance, as a result of secret negotiations between Turkey and Syria over Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), could pose a challenge to Cyprus's relations with NATO and EU member states, increasing tensions due to perceived challenges to the existing maritime order.
- The definition of EEZ boundaries is essential for access to underwater energy resources such as natural gas. An agreement between Turkey and Syria that disregards Cyprus's claims could limit Cyprus's access to potential energy resources, especially if the agreement encroaches on areas considered by Cyprus as part of its EEZ.
- Turkey's commitment to defending the rights and interests of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), by potentially including concessions favorable to the TRNC, further complicates the already complex situation in Cyprus.
- The talks could lead to increased competition for resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially destabilizing the region, and Cyprus would need to navigate these dynamics carefully to protect its interests.
- Cyprus might face increased diplomatic pressure from Turkey to accept maritime boundaries that favor Turkey's interests and those of the TRNC, which could have significant economic implications for the country.
- The talks between Turkey and Syria could potentially strain relations with other regional actors, necessitating careful diplomacy by Cyprus to maintain its position in the region, as the 2019 maritime agreement between Turkey and Libya serves as a precedent for the potential EEZ agreement with Syria and has already sparked strong objections from Greece and the European Union.
