Decision on the dollar's exchange rate awaits following significant meeting: predictions for currencies
The Russian ruble and the Belarusian ruble, closely tied currencies, have seen a growth momentum on the Belarusian market, with the exchange rate of the Russian ruble ending the week at RUB/BYN 3.716 for 100 Russian rubles, marking a +10.97% appreciation against the Belarusian ruble year-to-date.
This growth can be attributed to several factors. Diplomatic progress in the ongoing Russia-US summits, such as the recent high-profile meetings between Presidents Putin and Trump, aim to reduce tensions and potentially lead to diplomatic breakthroughs. Successful diplomatic progress or de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could strengthen these currencies against the US dollar as uncertainty diminishes and markets stabilize. Conversely, renewed conflict or no substantive breakthrough tends to weaken these currencies due to persistent sanctions and capital flight risk.
Separately, US consumer inflation data informs markets about the Federal Reserve’s potential monetary policy moves. Higher inflation might lead to expectations of continued or increased interest rate hikes, supporting a stronger US dollar on global markets. Conversely, lower or easing inflation could signal a more dovish Fed stance, potentially weakening the dollar. Given the Belarusian ruble and Russian ruble’s exposure to Russia and their linkage with oil prices and regional risk, shifts in US monetary policy expectations driven by inflation data will indirectly influence their exchange rates via dollar strength adjustments.
The upcoming US consumer inflation data on August 13, at 15:30 Moscow time, could impact the dollar's course in the middle of the week. However, the combined effect on the dollar exchange rates with the Belarusian and Russian rubles depends on the relative weight of geopolitical developments versus US monetary policy signals in investor sentiment.
The Russian financial market showed a strengthening mid-last week following the departure of US Special Representative Mr. Whitcoff from Moscow and the subsequent decision to hold a high-level Russia-US bilateral meeting in Alaska. The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) closed the week at its highest level since May 2025, at 2924.2 points.
Despite these positive developments, the range of fluctuations for the dollar on the Belarusian market is widening, and dollar exchange rate volatility persists, driven by external factors. The weekly trading volume in dollars was above average in Belarus, at $81.875 million.
In Belarus, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar decreased minimally, with the week's closing rate reaching USD/BYN 2.9876. The dollar rate remains within the range of USD/BYN 2.985 - 3.015 on the Belarusian market.
The meeting between the leaders of Russia and the US at the end of the week is a key focus for the market. Opinions presented by financial market experts may not reflect the views of the editorial board and are not offers or recommendations to buy or sell any assets or currencies.
