Combining wheat ignites activities on Tuesday
The global wheat market is currently experiencing a unique blend of production strength, price volatility, and variable crop conditions.
## Wheat Production and Supply
For the 2025/26 marketing year, global wheat production is forecast at a record 808.6 million metric tons (MMT). Major increases in production are projected for the European Union, India, Algeria, and Morocco, while reductions are expected for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Syria, and Iraq.
World wheat trade, after a sharp decline in 2024/25, is forecasted to partially recover to 200.6 million tonnes in 2025/26.
## Wheat Prices and Market Trends
On July 1, 2025, wheat prices rose to approximately $5.50 per bushel, marking the highest level since April 17. This uptick is attributed to a weaker dollar and an unexpected drop in US crop ratings. Over the past month, prices have declined by 1.3%, and are down 8.44% year-to-date.
Global wheat futures are feeling pressure due to ongoing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and low export activity, particularly in the US. Recent trading sessions have seen mixed action, with all major US wheat contracts posting losses.
## Crop Conditions
As of late June, the US winter wheat crop was rated 48–52% good/excellent, a 1–2 percentage point decline from the previous week. The spring wheat crop is also slightly behind schedule. Crop conditions are variable internationally, with China experiencing dry, hot winds in key production regions, while Spain and India report strong yields and favorable conditions.
## Market Activity
In the latest Grain Stocks report, all wheat stocks as of June 1 were reported at 850.5 million bushels. KC HRW contracts were 7 to 10 cents lower on Monday, and MGEX Wheat for July 2023 is currently down 4 3/4 cents. There were 193 contracts issued against CBT wheat overnight, and preliminary open interest for Chicago SRW wheat was up 2,070 contracts.
Chicago SRW wheat closed the day down 2 to 4 cents, MGEX Wheat for September 2023 closed at $6.21 3/4, down 7 1⁄4 cents, and KCBT Wheat for July 2023 closed at $5.06, down 10 cents. KCBT Wheat for September 2023 is currently up 1/2 cent, while MPLS spring wheat posted 5 to 8 cent losses at the close. There were 310 deliveries against KC wheat overnight.
It is essential to note that all information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. For more information, please view the website Disclosure Policy.
In the realm of global finance and business, the forecast for the upcoming 2025/26 wheat market shows a projected increase in production by key players in the industry, potentially leading to a recovery in world wheat trade. However, the ever-fluctuating wheat prices, influenced by factors like currency strength and crop conditions, are posing a challenge for investors in the wheat industry.
