Cocoa Market Mixed: Ivory Coast Boosts Shipments, Chocolate Makers Cut Sales Guidance
Cocoa markets have seen mixed trends recently, with production and sales volumes fluctuating. Ivory Coast farmers shipped more cocoa, while chocolate makers Barry Callebaut AG and Lindt & Sprüngli AG reduced their sales volume and margin guidance respectively. Meanwhile, cocoa prices have been volatile, with sharp falls and concerns about quality and production.
Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, shipped 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports this marketing year, up 3.4% from last year. However, this increase is less than the significant rise seen in December. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects a 11% decrease in cocoa production for the 2025/26 crop year, indicating potential supply issues.
Cocoa prices have been volatile. December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) and London cocoa (CAZ25) closed down -249 (-3.56%) and -120 (-2.47%) respectively in December. More recently, prices fell sharply on Tuesday, with NY cocoa posting an 11-month low and London cocoa a 19-month low. This volatility is partly due to changes in production and sales volumes.
Chocolate makers have been adjusting their guidance. Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance twice in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices. Similarly, Lindt & Sprüngli AG lowered its margin guidance due to a decline in first-half chocolate sales. Meanwhile, cocoa deliveries in Ghana surged, reaching 50,440 MT in the four weeks ending September 4, compared to about 11,000 MT in the same period in 2024.
The cocoa market is experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish factors. While increased production in Ivory Coast and surging deliveries in Ghana could pressure prices, quality concerns in Ivory Coast and reduced production in Nigeria could support them. Chocolate makers are adjusting their guidance in response to these market dynamics, indicating a complex and evolving landscape for cocoa and chocolate producers.
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