Bitcoin Maintains Above $100K Mark Amidst Low Trading Volume: Two Indicators Suggest Further Growth
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin's current trading pattern is causing ripples. As of press time, the digital currency is displaying signs reminiscent of the initial phase of a bullish movement, similar to early 2023, suggesting more room for upward price movement. However, a significant divergence between price and volume is causing concern among investors.
Bitcoin's trading volume has experienced a notable decline despite its price remaining elevated, currently hovering near the $108,000 level. This disparity between price and volume is noteworthy and raises several underlying factors and potential implications for future price movements.
## Key Reasons for Declining Volume
The drop in both spot and futures trading volume is consistent with a recurring midyear slowdown observed over the past three years. Futures volume, in particular, fell by about 20% in June 2025 compared to the prior months, mirroring patterns from previous years where trading activity tends to dip during the summer.
The decrease in volume could also be attributed to diminished market conviction, profit-taking after significant price gains, and general caution among traders amid recent market tensions and fears of a reversal. While institutional buying has remained robust, overall Bitcoin demand has contracted sharply. CryptoQuant data shows that “invisible demand” from retail investors, OTC trades, and international buyers has collapsed, effectively offsetting institutional accumulation and leading to overall lower market participation.
## Implications for Future Price Movements
When trading volume decreases while prices remain high or increase, it often signals a lack of broad-based support for the price. This increases the likelihood of a pullback or at least a period of consolidation, as there is insufficient buying momentum to sustain further rallies. Lower volume environments can make prices more sensitive to news, regulatory announcements, or macroeconomic events, as fewer participants are needed to move the market in either direction.
Historical patterns suggest that trading volume tends to rebound after the summer lull, especially during the last quarter of the year, which could reignite bullish momentum if other supportive factors emerge.
## Summary
The decrease in Bitcoin volume is driven by both seasonal effects and a broader contraction in retail and international demand, despite continued institutional interest. This environment is likely to result in increased market volatility and the potential for price consolidation or retracement until trading activity picks up again.
However, the current pattern resembles the conditions in the middle of 2023, preceding a 10-percent correction and a bigger breakout. The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin stands at 2.26, indicating long-term accumulation, historically preceding huge rallies. Therefore, despite the current decline in volume, there appears to be still more room to the upside for Bitcoin's price movement.
[1] Cointelegraph. (2025). Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis: Bulls aim for $120,000 as BTC consolidates above $108,000. [online] Available at: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-btc-price-analysis-bulls-aim-for-120-000-as-btc-consolidates-above-108-000
[2] CryptoQuant. (2025). Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits 2-Year Low. [online] Available at: https://cryptoquant.com/trend/btc/futures/open_interest
[3] Glassnode. (2025). Bitcoin Supply Shock: Exchange Inflow Velocity Drops To 2-Year Low. [online] Available at: https://glassnode.com/research/bitcoin-supply-shock-exchange-inflow-velocity-drops-to-2-year-low
[4] CoinDesk. (2025). Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Hits All-Time High. [online] Available at: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/06/12/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-hits-all-time-high/
- Investors are concerned about the current decline in Bitcoin's trading volume, despite the price remaining near the $108,000 level, as this disparity could signify underlying factors that affect future price movements.
- The drop in Bitcoin's trading volume can be attributed to several reasons, such as a recurring midyear slowdown, diminished market conviction, profit-taking after significant price gains, and general caution among traders amid recent market tensions.
- Despite the current decline in trading volume, the MVRV ratio of Bitcoin stands at 2.26, indicating long-term accumulation, historically preceding huge rallies. This suggests that there may still be room for upward price movement in Bitcoin, despite the current pattern resembling a mid-2023 correction.
