Belarusian manufacturing persists in an upward trajectory, albeit at a decelerated rate
Cashing In: Uneven Industrial Growth Across Belarus
Belarus' industrial sector is experiencing a mixed bag — with Minsk and a few regions surging ahead while others face setbacks. According to Belstat, industrial production in Belarus clocked in at 68.5 billion rubles in the first four months of 2025, marking a 1.4% increase compared to the same period last year.
However, the growth momentum has noticeably slowed down, with the annual indicator increasing by just 2.1% by the end of the first quarter.
A deep dive into the data reveals that the processing industry contributed 60.2 billion rubles (+1.5%), electricity, gas, and related services added 6.07 billion rubles (+0.8%), water services brought in 1.27 billion rubles (+0.1%), and the mining industry garnered 945.6 million rubles (+2.8%).
Only four regions — Minsk (+6.5%), Minsk Oblast (+6.1%), Brest (+3.5%), and Mogilev (+0.5%) — recorded an increase in industrial production. On the flip side, Vitebsk (-3.1%), Grodno (-2.9%), and Gomel (-2.1%) faced a dip.
But what's behind this divergent picture?
Insider insights suggest that Minsk and its surrounding regions, particularly Minsk Oblast, benefited significantly from capital investments. Taking the lead in capital investment utilization at 24.5%, Minsk Oblast seemed to have the edge over other regions. In fact, Minsk itself used a whopping 20.6% of total capital investments.
This surge in capital investments, mostly concentrated in construction and machinery sectors, fostered robust industrial production growth in Minsk and its immediate neighborhood. In addition, the nationwide manufacturing sector bloomed by a staggering 2% in Q1 2025, with an impressive acceleration in production dynamics seen in March.
The boom in the automotive industry played a crucial role as well. The vehicle market skyrocketed by a massive 61.6% in the first quarter, buoyed by leading brands like Geely's expansion. This boost could have provided a much-needed impulse to regions with automotive production facilities, mainly in Minsk and other industrial hubs.
Construction too experienced averaged growth of 15.6%, with road construction soaring by a stunning 22%. Regions aggressively engaged in infrastructure projects, predominantly in Minsk, Brest, and Gomel oblasts, likely drove this surge.
On the downside, regions like Vitebsk, Mogilev, and Grodno, despite accounting for substantial percentages of capital investment, remained relatively behind in industrial growth, possibly due to less investment, a smaller industrial base, or a sectoral focus that did not scale as fast as automotive or construction.
In essence, Belarus' industrial sector growth during Q1 2025 chiefly benefits regions with higher capital investments, more focus on manufacturing and construction, and a robust automotive industry. On contrast, other regions with slimmer capital investments and an underdeveloped industrial infrastructure seem to be lagging behind.
The financial growth in the industrial sector of Belarus, as suggested by the increased production figures, can be largely attributed to the heavy investment in strategic industries such as construction and machinery, specifically in Minsk and its surrounding regions like Minsk Oblast. Conversely, regions like Vitebsk, Mogilev, and Grodno, which may have fewer capital investments, a smaller industrial base, or a less focused sectoral approach, are experiencing slower growth in the business sector.
