Anticipated heightened global rice production for the upcoming season, potentially escalating trade activity.
Record Rice Imports Forecast for Iraq in 2025-26
The global rice trade is set to break records in the 2025-26 season, driven by strong export activity from countries such as Burma and the United States, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
In the Middle East, Iraq is projected to be the sixth-largest rice importer in 2025, with its imports for the marketing year 2024-25 already on pace to reach a record high. Iraq imported 1.28 million tonnes of rice from January through June 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, supplying less than 10% of domestic consumption.
Thailand has been a significant player in Iraq's rice market, taking advantage of India's reduced presence due to restrictive export policies in 2022-23. Thailand is Iraq's second-largest market and the top market for regular white rice, while India holds the third position, particularly for basmati rice.
India's rice export prices have increased slightly due to strong demand, especially from Bangladesh, with Indian quotes rising to $374 per ton. However, Thailand seized market share from India in 2022-23 and has managed to maintain its position, falling rice prices in Thailand by $15 per ton to stimulate more demand from importers.
The United States is also contributing to the global trade increase with a surge in U.S. rice stocks as of August 2025, up 35% compared to last year. This abundant supply is expected to support U.S. rice exports in the 2025-26 season.
Elsewhere, the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, is expected to see a decline in imports due to a two-month import ban starting in September. The ban aims to protect local farmers but will reduce Philippine import volume to an estimated 4.9 million MT down from an earlier 5.4 million MT projection. This suspension is expected to put downward pressure on export prices for Vietnamese rice.
The IGC predicts a modest increase in rice uptake for the 2025-26 season, boosted by growing food demand in Africa and Asia. However, global rice production for the 2025-26 season is estimated to be a record high at 541 million tonnes, with consumption estimated at 542 million tonnes. Despite the increased consumption, global stocks are expected to decline overall due to reductions in the Philippines, Nigeria, and Burma.
In summary, the 2025-26 rice market features record global trade volumes supported by supply from key exporters (Burma, U.S., India, Thailand). Domestic policies like the Philippine import ban and output declines in countries like Iraq and Brazil affect regional supply-demand balances, while overall global stocks and production remain robust. Prices are expected to moderate amid plentiful supply despite localized demand shifts.
Additionally, wheat production in the 2025-26 season is projected to be 806.9 million tonnes, up from 799.89 million tonnes in 2024-25. The Public Distribution System (PDS) in Iraq primarily consists of long-grain rice, and consumption of regular white rice in Iraq has grown significantly due to the PDS.
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