Anticipated 1.5-fold growth in real wages by 2028, as per the Economic Development Ministry's predictions.
In the baseline prediction, by 2025, the indicator could potentially leap to approximately 102,7 thousand rubles (up by 16.8% compared to the previous year), escalating further to 132.9 thousand rubles by 2028 (+7.3%). On the other hand, in the conservative scenario, factoring potential obstacles in the global economy, the growth might only reach 127.4 thousand rubles by 2028, as suggested by some economic analysts.
Real wages, accounting for inflation, might witness a more modest rise: 6.8% in 2025 and 3.2% by 2028. The Ministry of Economic Development anticipates a deceleration in labor productivity growth — from 3.5% in 2024 to a mere 2.3% in 2025. By 2028, they expect the workforce to swell to 76.5 million individuals, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 2.5%.
Victoria Pavlyushina, a partner at the Agency for Transformation and Economic Development, suggests that the revised forecast stems from labor scarcity in the industrial sector and regions with state contracts. She emphasizes that a significant factor in attracting employees is the rise in wages. Furthermore, she highlighted the 13.2% wage indexation in the budget sector for 2025, as reported by Vedomosti.
Alexander Safonov from the Financial University expressed concerns that increasing costs due to a high key rate (21%) and dwindling consumer demand might impede the rate of growth. He cautioned that enterprises have limited resources to boost wages.
A 2024 survey by the CB revealed that only 75% of companies plan to adjust wages in 2025, a stark drop from the 93% of companies that planned to do so the previous year.
In 2024, nominal wages escalated by 18.3% (reaching 87,900 rubles), and real disposable incomes experienced a rise of 7.3%. However, by 2028, growth is expected to slow, with the Ministry of Economic Development forecasting an increment of only 3% for real incomes. According to Rosstat, by the end of the first two months of 2025, nominal wages grew by 15.7%, and real wages by 3.2%.
Now, let's delve a bit deeper into Russia's economic landscape:
Economic Forecast Across Multiple Fronts: according to the Russian Economic Development Ministry's predictions, the country's GDP growth could stand at 2.5% in 2025, with gradual increases to 2.4% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027, and 3.0% in 2028[2][5]. The inflation rate is estimated to be 7.6% in 2025, while for the following years, it will conform to the target rate of 4.0%. The investment growth rate is projected to be 1.7% in 2025, escalating to 3% in 2026 and continuing to rise, reaching 3.7% in 2028[4]. These figures offer a glimpse into Russia's economic outlook, but the specific metrics of wage growth, labor productivity, workforce size, and unemployment rate remain ambiguous in the available search results.
- In the conservative scenario, the growth of real wages might be smaller, rising by 6.8% in 2025 and 3.2% by 2028, as opposed to the baseline prediction.
- Victoria Pavlyushina, a partner at the Agency for Transformation and Economic Development, attributes the slowdown in wage growth to labor scarcity in industrial sectors and regions with state contracts, highlighting the rise in wages as a significant factor in attracting employees.
- By 2028, the conservative forecast suggests that the economy might reach a GDP of 127.4 thousand rubles, which is lower than the baseline prediction of 132.9 thousand rubles, indicating a potential slowdown in business growth due to obstacles in the global economy.
- Alexander Safonov from the Financial University raises concerns about the high key rate (21%) and dwindling consumer demand, fearing they might hinder the growth of wages in businesses, which have limited resources to boost compensation.
