A prospective year of 2024 could potentially rank among the most challenging in the chronicles of the North Baltic Canal, due to a predicted reduction in the number of ships.
Decline in Kiel Canal Traffic: Causes and Consequences
The Kiel Canal, a vital waterway connecting the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, has seen a significant decrease in ship traffic over the past decade. This decline can be attributed to several factors, as detailed below.
- Changes in Shipping Routes and Patterns
- The rise of larger vessels, such as very large container ships and bulk carriers, has led to a shift in shipping patterns. Many of these ships are too large to pass through the Kiel Canal, opting for alternative routes instead.
- The canal's size and lock system impose limits on ship dimensions, making it less appealing to modern vessels.
- Competition from Other Routes
- The expansion and upgrades of North Sea ports, like Rotterdam and Hamburg, and improvements in direct open-sea routes provide alternatives to the Kiel Canal.
- The increased usage of longer but deep-water routes can offset the time and cost benefits of the canal for larger or specialized ships.
- Economic and Trade Shifts
- Changes in global trade patterns, such as shifts in the origin and destination of goods, can reduce traffic on certain routes.
- Economic slowdowns or volatility can affect cargo volumes and ship traffic overall.
- Environmental and Operational Restrictions
- Stricter environmental regulations may affect the scheduling, speed, or routes of ships.
- Maintenance or upgrades to the canal infrastructure might temporarily reduce capacity or deter use.
Impact on Shipping and the Economy
Shipping Impact: - The reduction in passages means fewer ships benefit from the time and fuel savings offered by the canal, potentially increasing voyage times and fuel consumption for those vessels.
Economic Impact: - Reduced traffic can lead to lower revenues from tolls and fees for the canal’s operator, impacting profitability and funding for maintenance or upgrades. - Local economies dependent on canal-related activities—ports, shipping services, maintenance, and logistics—may experience reduced business. - However, the canal still plays a vital role in regional trade and transport, so its strategic importance remains high despite fluctuations in traffic.
In addition, the middle ship size is decreasing, affecting lots fees for canal pilots. All traffic data from the canal, including quantities of goods transported and the size of the ships, are awaited with keen interest.
Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal, suggests that if the planned expansion of the canal is completed and the speed limit can be lifted, it will make the canal more attractive to shipowners again. The Kiel Canal saw a record low in 2022 with fewer than 25,000 ships passing through, a first since 1945.
Müller, from the NOKII pilotage brotherhood, mentions that if the canal passage becomes predictable, the situation may improve. The ongoing construction work, with a speed reduction from 15 to 12 km/h since July 1, 2023, and the threatened three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel from May for rail repairs, underscore the unpredictability of the canal's usage.
Despite these challenges, the Kiel Canal remains a crucial asset for German and European maritime commerce, connecting the North Sea and the Baltic Sea and saving time and fuel for eligible ships that can use it.
- The decline in the Kiel Canal's traffic has led to an increase in voyage times and fuel consumption for eligible ships that can utilize it, as fewer ships benefit from the time and fuel savings offered by the canal.
- The falling traffic on the Kiel Canal might impact the revenue streams of the canal's operator due to lower tolls and fees, potentially affecting the funding for maintenance or upgrades.
- The shrinking middle ship size could result in reduced lots fees for canal pilots, necessitating careful monitoring of traffic data, including quantities of goods transported and the size of the ships, on the Kiel Canal.
